Advice in Brief The consensus view that a global recession is not imminent seems reasonable, but the possibility cannot be ruled out. This keeps us looking for bargains, but leaving the bar high, as most assets are not cheap and what is cheap is generally cyclically oriented. Asian emerging markets or Asia ex Japan equities…
This edition of VantagePoint reviews the potential for contagion from Greece, concluding that the ECB appears to have adequate ammunition to manage through current conditions, but longer-term political risks remain. We consider recent activity in Chinese equity markets and conclude that offshore Chinese H-shares offer more appeal than onshore A-shares, where upside potential is limited as highly leveraged investors seek to reduce exposure by selling into rallies. We examine the prospects for a sustained reversal of major trends that have persisted since last year, concluding that reversals appear unlikely for now.
Advice in Brief We generally remain neutral on risky assets, but are becoming more cautious and selective as the market cycle advances and the US Federal Reserve looks to begin raising rates. We maintain our advice that investors shift more capital into safer assets as equity markets become more expensive. Volatility has been rising in…
VantagePoint is a quarterly publication from our Chief Investment Strategist summarizing C|A’s total portfolio advice. Advice in Brief We have been recommending since the middle of last year that investors shift more capital into safer assets—more fundamentally driven hedge funds and Treasuries—as equity markets become more expensive, even as we remain neutral on equities on…
VantagePoint is a quarterly publication from our Chief Investment Strategist summarizing C|A’s total portfolio advice. Advice in Brief Slower global economic growth and high valuations are likely to result in lower returns over the next five to ten years than experienced over the last five-and-a-half years. In addition, we anticipate that QE’s ability to elevate…
Advice in Brief Comparisons to 2007 are growing. A key distinction today is that policy rates in most developed economies remain near zero. With little inflationary pressure, this cycle could last another several years. This is neither a time to be ramping up nor pulling back risk taking. It is a time for diversification, modest…
VantagePoint is a new quarterly publication from our Chief Investment Strategist summarizing C|A’s total portfolio advice. Advice in Brief Review portfolios to prepare for the prospect of continued tapering and ultimate tightening of monetary policy. Income-oriented assets that benefited the most from quantitative easing are likely to be hurt the worst as monetary policy normalizes,…