In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the drivers of US outperformance in the context of historical expansions, consider what markets are pricing in, and if stronger fundamentals for US equities justify higher valuations.
The shifting geopolitical realities between the United States and China have already impacted trade and investment flows. In this two-part series of VantagePoint, we review this reality and consider investment implications alongside those of other key factors—such as domestic structural developments, macroeconomic conditions, and valuations. In Part I, we focused on opportunities in China specifically. In this companion piece, we discuss investment opportunities beyond China.
The shifting geopolitical realities between the United States and China have already impacted trade and investment flows. In this two-part series of VantagePoint, we review this reality and consider investment implications alongside those of other key factors—such as domestic structural developments, macroeconomic conditions, and valuations. In Part I, we focus on opportunities in China specifically, and in Part II, we discuss other Asian investment opportunities beyond China.
The energy transition involves a complex and dynamic set of changes in the way we do just about everything. While significant progress has been made in some quarters, considerable capital will be needed to fund the massive investment required over coming decades. We expect investors with a deliberate and thoughtful plan to invest in the transition across the risk/reward spectrum will be rewarded.
We entered 2023 with a view that a recession in some economies, namely the United States and much of Europe, was likely this year, and the recent banking sector stresses reinforce our confidence in this view. Investors should be disciplined in maintaining policy targets broadly, remembering the role allocations to stocks, bonds, and cash play in portfolios.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we explore the improvement in economic conditions, prospects for recession in the United States and Europe, the degree to which markets are pricing in reasonable economic and earnings prospects, and sensible asset allocation considerations.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we review three big questions that are central to the path of the markets: 1) Will the US Fed pivot away from aggressive tightening?; 2) Will China move away from its zero-COVID policy?; and 3) Will Europe successfully manage its transition away from Russian energy imports?
Given the uncertain economic and profit environment, have markets bottomed yet? In this edition of VantagePoint, we address this question by comparing current market conditions to those of historical bear markets, evaluating economic conditions to better understand near-term recession prospects, and considering how much further the market may have to go based on historical precedents.
Global inflation has been higher and more persistent than most economists anticipated. In this edition of VantagePoint, we evaluate current inflationary and deflationary crosscurrents and the implications for investors. We continue to believe that predicting the future path of inflation is difficult to do well and that the best protection is a well-constructed diversified portfolio designed to meet the asset owner’s risk tolerance, portfolio objectives, and spending needs.
This year may prove to be pivotal in the transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Policy makers, businesses, and investors are accelerating commitments to bring greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, while technological advances and economics in sectors, like renewable energy and EVs, are reaching more competitive functionality and cost. Even as the energy transition gains speed, we are still in the very early days and anticipate a long and disruptive transition.