The start of the year is always a good time to focus on personal improvements with resolutions. In this edition of VantagePoint, we share in the spirit of a new year by providing investment resolutions: Ten Temptations to Resist in 2017 Chasing macro and political developments Investing while looking through the rearview mirror Sticking with…
Advice in Brief Bond yields have reached extreme levels this year amid soft growth, continued central bank purchases, and negative interest rate policies, dragging down prospective returns for a variety of asset classes. Capital markets are unlikely to deliver most investors’ long-term return objectives over the next five to ten years. In such an environment,…
VantagePoint is a quarterly publication from our Chief Investment Strategist Celia Dallas summarizing CA’s total portfolio advice.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we discuss the potential implications of negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In addition, we consider the potential for sustained outperformance in value stocks, which experienced a sharp revival in the second half of the first quarter, noting that we would continue to own value in portfolios, but would not broadly overweight just yet. Energy-related assets and emerging markets equities seem a better way to obtain value-based exposures today. At the same time, we are keeping a close eye on credit markets in search of value opportunities. Finally, we review the outlook for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which we believe offer modest opportunity to outperform relative to nominal Treasuries should headline CPI follow the increase experienced in some of the stickier prices in the index.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we briefly discuss economic growth prospects, reaffirming the need to be cautious about cyclically oriented assets in an environment of low growth and severe weakness in some corners that could potentially spread. In other words, we remain patient in evaluating opportunities and set high standards for taking cyclical risk. We review our outlook for cheap assets that keep getting cheaper (commodity-related assets and emerging markets equities), evaluate the case for high-yield bonds as yields and spreads have widened, and revisit our global developed markets equity recommendations.
Advice in Brief The consensus view that a global recession is not imminent seems reasonable, but the possibility cannot be ruled out. This keeps us looking for bargains, but leaving the bar high, as most assets are not cheap and what is cheap is generally cyclically oriented. Asian emerging markets or Asia ex Japan equities…
This edition of VantagePoint reviews the potential for contagion from Greece, concluding that the ECB appears to have adequate ammunition to manage through current conditions, but longer-term political risks remain. We consider recent activity in Chinese equity markets and conclude that offshore Chinese H-shares offer more appeal than onshore A-shares, where upside potential is limited as highly leveraged investors seek to reduce exposure by selling into rallies. We examine the prospects for a sustained reversal of major trends that have persisted since last year, concluding that reversals appear unlikely for now.
Advice in Brief We generally remain neutral on risky assets, but are becoming more cautious and selective as the market cycle advances and the US Federal Reserve looks to begin raising rates. We maintain our advice that investors shift more capital into safer assets as equity markets become more expensive. Volatility has been rising in…
VantagePoint is a quarterly publication from our Chief Investment Strategist summarizing C|A’s total portfolio advice. Advice in Brief We have been recommending since the middle of last year that investors shift more capital into safer assets—more fundamentally driven hedge funds and Treasuries—as equity markets become more expensive, even as we remain neutral on equities on…
VantagePoint is a quarterly publication from our Chief Investment Strategist summarizing C|A’s total portfolio advice. Advice in Brief Slower global economic growth and high valuations are likely to result in lower returns over the next five to ten years than experienced over the last five-and-a-half years. In addition, we anticipate that QE’s ability to elevate…