Research Publications Archive

When Should Investors Become More Enthusiastic About US Small-Cap Stocks?

Investors should become more enthusiastic about US small-cap stocks when valuations become more compelling. Small-cap valuations today are unusually rich. Our preferred composite P/E ratio indicates the Russell 2000® trades at 33.7 times normalized earnings, about 60% above fair value and in the top 2% of all historical occurrences. Short-term metrics are little more compelling;…

European Equities: Too Early to Take Profits

We continue to advise an overweight to Eurozone equities versus US equivalents given attractive relative valuations, greater potential for earnings growth, and tailwinds from the improving macro environment Eurozone equities have performed strongly year-to-date but may have more room to run given valuations and weaker medium-term performance. UK equities have similar valuations but are less…

The Government Bond Market “Rout”: Technical or Fundamental?

After lying quiescent for many months, volatility has suddenly returned to government bond markets. Many investors have been surprised by the ferocity of the move and are asking themselves whether this is anything more than a tempest in a teacup or the beginning of something bigger. In our view, a combination of fundamental and technical…

CA Perspectives: Spring 2015

We cover the following topics in this issue: In our feature article, “Alpha Isn’t Optional—But Is It Always Possible?,” Celia Dallas and Max Senter discuss why investors should continue to focus on alpha generation as a key driver of long-term performance even during a beta-driven market environment. In “Taking the Wheel: What’s Driving the Co-Investing…

How to Be Bullish

We are on record advising clients to underweight US equities, as they are overvalued both in absolute terms and particularly relative to non-US markets. That said, we believe strongly in the value of constantly looking for where we could be wrong; thus, we have lately been exploring analyses that make the case for a bullish…

Should Investors Be Worried About Corporate Debt Liquidity?

The lack of corporate debt liquidity is certainly worrisome—indeed, it is one of a myriad of similar potential trouble spots—and has some idiosyncratic elements investors should take into account. Observers have been warning of a potential crisis in corporate debt since the 2010 passage of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which…

Alternative Credit Opportunities in Asia

Asia has a structural and cyclical need for alternative credit providers; given where Asia is in the credit cycle, special situations and direct lending strategies should offer attractive risk-adjusted returns Returns for traditional Asian fixed income and credit are unattractive today. However, opportunities remain in the less liquid, underserved, and complex spheres of corporate lending…

The Burden of European Debt

Many factors contributed to the global financial crisis, but an excessively high level of indebtedness built up over many years was a crucial one. Although the crisis first blew up in the US housing and mortgage markets, the receding tide of liquidity revealed many other exposed debtors, especially within the Eurozone. In the aftermath of…