Research Publications Archive

Revisiting Active US Equity Management: A Cyclical Story

We are not unconditional advocates for or against active management; investors have different circumstances. However, while there are many logical rationales for favoring index over active investing, the recent performance struggle of the average active manager is not among them.

Constructing Superior Equity Portfolios

Executive Summary A common perception among investors that employ active equity management is that the “donut” structure—an all-active manager structure often composed of four or more high conviction managers—is more aggressive, more expensive, and riskier than the “core-satellite” structure—which blends active and passive management by adding a large passive core component to the donut—because of…

When Should Investors Become More Enthusiastic About US Small-Cap Stocks?

Investors should become more enthusiastic about US small-cap stocks when valuations become more compelling. Small-cap valuations today are unusually rich. Our preferred composite P/E ratio indicates the Russell 2000® trades at 33.7 times normalized earnings, about 60% above fair value and in the top 2% of all historical occurrences. Short-term metrics are little more compelling;…

European Equities: Too Early to Take Profits

We continue to advise an overweight to Eurozone equities versus US equivalents given attractive relative valuations, greater potential for earnings growth, and tailwinds from the improving macro environment Eurozone equities have performed strongly year-to-date but may have more room to run given valuations and weaker medium-term performance. UK equities have similar valuations but are less…

The Government Bond Market “Rout”: Technical or Fundamental?

After lying quiescent for many months, volatility has suddenly returned to government bond markets. Many investors have been surprised by the ferocity of the move and are asking themselves whether this is anything more than a tempest in a teacup or the beginning of something bigger. In our view, a combination of fundamental and technical…

CA Perspectives: Spring 2015

We cover the following topics in this issue: In our feature article, “Alpha Isn’t Optional—But Is It Always Possible?,” Celia Dallas and Max Senter discuss why investors should continue to focus on alpha generation as a key driver of long-term performance even during a beta-driven market environment. In “Taking the Wheel: What’s Driving the Co-Investing…

How to Be Bullish

We are on record advising clients to underweight US equities, as they are overvalued both in absolute terms and particularly relative to non-US markets. That said, we believe strongly in the value of constantly looking for where we could be wrong; thus, we have lately been exploring analyses that make the case for a bullish…