Research Publications Archive

Keep Your Pencil Sharp on Your Active Value Exposures

The prospect of higher interest rates has contributed to recent equity market volatility and provided a wake-up call for investors underweight some traditional value sectors. What may surprise some investors is that even managers that style themselves as value-oriented may be underweight bellwether value sectors. Now is a good time to sharpen your pencil on value manager exposures.

Decades of Data: United Kingdom 1900–2021

The 2021 UK edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.

Pension Risk Transfers Have Several Downside Risks for US Plan Sponsors

The Pension Risk Transfer (PRT) market has grown markedly over the past decade as recent regulatory changes, coupled with greater pricing competition from insurers, have increased the popularity of PRTs. However, for many plan sponsors, PRTs are not the best solution. Plan sponsors should fully understand the potential impact of a risk transfer transaction on their plan, specifically as it relates to three dimensions explored in this paper: funded status, risk reduction, and future costs. Without this understanding, the hidden cost of these transactions may go unnoticed.

Developed Markets Monetary Policy and Rates Outlook

Government bonds have sold off to start the year as central banks tighten policy in response to inflation pressures. The rise in yields this year may meet some resistance in the near-term, but likely has more room to run given the economic backdrop and policy trajectory. Of course, the war in Ukraine and its impact on the economy will be a key driver of rates for the duration of the conflict.

Decades of Data: United States 1900–2021

The 2021 US edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.

Annual Review of Endowments: Fiscal Year 2021

Our annual report based on a survey administered to our endowment clients summarizes returns, asset allocation, and other investment-related data for 307 institutions for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2021. We also review peer data on topics such as investment policy, portfolio manager structures, spending, and investment office staffing and governance.