We entered 2023 with a view that a recession in some economies, namely the United States and much of Europe, was likely this year, and the recent banking sector stresses reinforce our confidence in this view. Investors should be disciplined in maintaining policy targets broadly, remembering the role allocations to stocks, bonds, and cash play in portfolios.
India has arguably the most compelling long-term growth opportunity in the global economy today. But should investors buy the hype surrounding Indian equities? We think India’s bright economic prospects have the potential to drive strong equity market returns in the long run; however, we do not think Indian equities offer a compelling overweight over a shorter-term, tactical horizon. Investors interested in India’s growth story from a strategic perspective should build allocations through high-quality public and private managers, preferably toward active managers on the public equity side.
In this edition of Asia Insights, we highlight areas in public equities, private investments, real assets, and hedge funds where we continue to find opportunities, despite the current environment of higher rates and market uncertainty.
Risk assets continued to rebound in first quarter, led by global equities, which have gained 15% since their recent trough last October.
Risk assets broadly declined in February, reversing some of the rally from the last several months.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we explore the improvement in economic conditions, prospects for recession in the United States and Europe, the degree to which markets are pricing in reasonable economic and earnings prospects, and sensible asset allocation considerations.
This publication presents manager performance for 36 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
Calendar year 2022 witnessed multi-decade record inflation and central banks responded with rapidly tightening monetary policy. Rising rates saw the correlation between bonds and equities turn positive, contributing to large declines across most asset classes. Funds flows diverted away from growth and momentum strategies, and yield curves flattened with the ten-year/two-year yield curve becoming inverted in most developed markets, signaling economic uncertainty ahead.
Risk assets broadly advanced in January, continuing their fourth quarter rally after a difficult 2022.
Risk assets closed a tumultuous year on a positive note in fourth quarter.