Market Matters: June 30, 2023
Performance was mixed in second quarter as several crosscurrents painted an uncertain outlook.
Performance was mixed in second quarter as several crosscurrents painted an uncertain outlook.
Risk assets generally declined in May, with real assets posting the lowest returns across broad categories.
Commercial real estate is not immune to economic cyclicality, and we think the sector will be challenged through an economic downturn. However, we think cyclical pressures will likely create opportunities in select sectors and advise investors to selectively invest in these areas to benefit from a rebound during the recovery.
Asset performance is highly sensitive to the global business cycle. In this chart book, we highlight the significant shifts in performance distributions across the global business cycle for major asset classes, including equity regions, styles, sectors as well as for fixed income, real asset and currencies. Ultimately, understanding the distributions of asset performance across business cycle stages and considering where the global economy is headed are key inputs in a rigorous investment decision-making framework.
This publication presents manager performance for 37 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
Risk assets generally advanced in April.
We entered 2023 with a view that a recession in some economies, namely the United States and much of Europe, was likely this year, and the recent banking sector stresses reinforce our confidence in this view. Investors should be disciplined in maintaining policy targets broadly, remembering the role allocations to stocks, bonds, and cash play in portfolios.
India has arguably the most compelling long-term growth opportunity in the global economy today. But should investors buy the hype surrounding Indian equities? We think India’s bright economic prospects have the potential to drive strong equity market returns in the long run; however, we do not think Indian equities offer a compelling overweight over a shorter-term, tactical horizon. Investors interested in India’s growth story from a strategic perspective should build allocations through high-quality public and private managers, preferably toward active managers on the public equity side.
In this edition of Asia Insights, we highlight areas in public equities, private investments, real assets, and hedge funds where we continue to find opportunities, despite the current environment of higher rates and market uncertainty.
Risk assets continued to rebound in first quarter, led by global equities, which have gained 15% since their recent trough last October.