Credit/Fixed Income

Review of Market Performance: Fiscal Year 2020

While US-China tensions began to slowly de-escalate in the the first half of FY 2020, the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second half upended the investment landscape. Gold and US Treasuries were the big winners as investors rushed into safe havens, while central banks cut rates and expanded QE programs. Equities have mounted a remarkable comeback, while real assets generally remain quite depressed. This chart book presents returns and other market metrics for fiscal year 2020.

Research Digest: Public Debt

Capital Markets Research (CMR) is pleased to announce Research Digest, a new and improved version of Investment Publications Highlights (IPH). The inaugural edition explores the costs and benefits of public debt. The debate surrounding public debt is not a new economic or policy issue, but it has garnered increased attention following the rapid increase in public debt since the 2007–09 global financial crisis and the massive increase in fiscal spending in 2020 to address the COVID-19 crisis.

Room to Run for Muni Bonds

Despite the recent volatility, in our view, munis continue to be an attractive alternative to both Treasuries and high-quality corporates for long-term taxable investors. Even tax-exempt investors that typically don’t hold munis may want to consider them in the current environment given relative valuations and credit fundamentals.

Life After Zero: Reassessing the Role of Sovereign Bonds with Negative Nominal Yields

In recent weeks, as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the globe, nominal high-quality sovereign bond yields throughout developed markets have plummeted toward zero, increasing the likelihood that most developed markets may soon need to contend with negative yields, and leading investors to question whether high-quality sovereign bonds are still the best form of insurance. In light of these developments, we examine the historical safe-haven characteristics of high-quality sovereign bonds and assesses whether they remain a viable safe-haven asset when nominal yields are negative.