Credit/Fixed Income

Are the Credit Bears Getting Lost in the Woods?

Worries over the health of US credit markets have risen in recent months, with numerous reports highlighting the growing vulnerability of indebted companies (and thus investors) to rising rates and a potential turn in the economic cycle. This paper provides our updated thoughts across US credit markets, as well as some tactical tilts investors could employ to help navigate a few of these headwinds.

Senior Loans: Recovery Rates May Fall in Next Downturn

The recovery rate on senior loans looks poised to fall in the next cyclical downturn, as weaker structures and terms impact the market. In this research note, we highlight our concerns and consider how the cocktail of unitranche loans, inflated cash flow assumptions, and weak terms could threaten recoveries in the next cyclical downturn.

US Manager Universe Statistics: Second Quarter 2018

This chart book presents representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance for second quarter 2018. The median US Small-Cap Growth manager posted the highest median return for both second quarter 2018 (8.7%) and the one-year period ending June 30, 2018 (25.4%). The median Emerging and Frontier Markets Equity manager posted the lowest median return for second quarter 2018, returning -8.6%, and the median Emerging Markets Debt manager suffered the worst performance for the one-year period ending June 30, 2018 (-1.6%).

Is Cash Still Trash?

Not in the United States. As short rates have increased and the yield curve has flattened, US T-bills offer more appeal than they have in some time.

US Manager Universe Statistics: First Quarter 2018

This chart book presents representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance for first quarter 2018. The median Global ex US Bonds manager posted the highest median return for first quarter 2018, returning 3.5%. Global ex US Small-Cap Equity managers posted the best returns for the one-year period ending March 31, 2018, with a median return of 26.4%. The median US REITs manager posted the lowest median return for both first quarter 2018 (-6.5%) and for the one-year period ending March 31, 2018 (-1.1%).