COVID-19 plunged the global economy into a deep recession triggering concern over a surge in corporate defaults. Recent monetary and fiscal stimulus has allowed a rebound in credit assets ranging from high-yield bonds to highly rated asset-backed securities, but other markets remain dislocated.
This publication presents manager performance for 37 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
Most risk assets surged in April, partially recovering from steep losses during first quarter’s volatile market environment. Global equities bounced back with double-digit gains, driven largely by US shares.
In recent weeks, as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the globe, nominal high-quality sovereign bond yields throughout developed markets have plummeted toward zero, increasing the likelihood that most developed markets may soon need to contend with negative yields, and leading investors to question whether high-quality sovereign bonds are still the best form of insurance. In light of these developments, we examine the historical safe-haven characteristics of high-quality sovereign bonds and assesses whether they remain a viable safe-haven asset when nominal yields are negative.
As the COVID-19 outbreak has escalated in the United States, sponsors of single employer–defined benefit pension plans have experienced a roller coaster ride. Avoiding, or at least cushioning, another wild ride requires a well-designed hedging strategy that accounts for credit spreads. We provide context for this rapidly evolving spread environment and potential responses.
Global risk assets suffered major drawdowns comparable to the global financial crisis in first quarter.
As we write in March 2020, COVID-19 is spreading across much of the world, undercutting economic activity. While we are unsure of how this situation will unfold, we have long believed that the best way to guard against future uncertainty is to have a well-constructed portfolio. One key component in that is understanding the relationship between asset prices and inflation.
In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the circumstances that have abruptly ended the bull market and evaluate the market implications of COVID-19. With that context, we discuss the case for rebalancing and evaluate some early opportunities.
On Sunday, the Federal Reserve Bank announced a host of emergency measures intended to improve bond market liquidity and reduce borrowing costs, which come in response to rising signs of dislocation across Treasury, municipal, and corporate bond markets.
Yields on ten-year Treasuries dropped below 50 basis points (bps) today for the first time in history as COVID-19 fears spread. While we cannot rule out a recession, given the uncertainties associated with the virus and its impact on economic activity, we believe today’s low yields are less about long-term growth forecasts and more about expectations of further Federal Reserve easing, risk aversion, and liquidity preferences.