Credit/Fixed Income

2022 New Zealand Outlook: Balancing the Pivot

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New Zealand’s COVID-19 containment strategy served the economy well during the early days of the pandemic. However, New Zealand equities and bonds suffered in 2021 as growth slowed to a halt late in the year due to lockdown measures and inflation moved higher due to labour market constraints. Heading into 2022, New Zealand authorities have pivoted the strategy from zero–COVID-19 to minimisation and protection, while still embarking on a monetary policy tightening cycle. Balancing both strategies will be key to supporting New Zealand’s economic growth in 2022.

Decades of Data: United Kingdom 1900–2021

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The 2021 UK edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.

Developed Markets Monetary Policy and Rates Outlook

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Government bonds have sold off to start the year as central banks tighten policy in response to inflation pressures. The rise in yields this year may meet some resistance in the near-term, but likely has more room to run given the economic backdrop and policy trajectory. Of course, the war in Ukraine and its impact on the economy will be a key driver of rates for the duration of the conflict.

Decades of Data: United States 1900–2021

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The 2021 US edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.

Tighter US Monetary Policy May Limit Upside Potential of Risk Assets

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Central banks across the globe are poised to raise policy rates in response to inflation concerns. By examining how US policy rates have impacted US risk assets historically, we consider how assets may react today. These tighter financial conditions may cap the upside potential for risk assets. Within equities and credit, the risks are particularly pronounced in growth stocks and investment-grade corporate bonds.

Market Matters: January 31, 2022

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Most global assets experienced broad-based declines in January. Global equities suffered their worst month since March 2020; emerging markets held up better than developed counterparts but remain a significant laggard over the trailing 12-month period. Value and large caps outperformed growth and small-cap equivalents, respectively. Fixed income assets declined as nominal interest rates rose and…

Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2021

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The global economy continued its road to recovery in 2021, as the most severe economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic gradually receded. There were fresh waves of infection during the year, but the public health actions taken to counter them were less economically damaging. In the meantime, fiscal and monetary policy remained at extremely accommodative levels, supporting strong risk-asset performance.