Credit/Fixed Income

European Bank Stress Adds to Economic Growth Challenges

On 20 March, investors awoke to news Swiss authorities had used emergency measures to push through a hastily arranged merger of Credit Suisse and UBS. Following two recent bank failures in the United States, the announcement raised questions over the health of European banks and the broader economy.

US Pensions: Higher Interest Rates Call for a Fixed Income Reassessment

In more uncertain investment environments, pension plan sponsors should remember that down markets can create value opportunities for well diversified portfolios. This paper discusses how recent developments in the fixed income market may be able to help total return-seeking pension plan portfolios, frozen plans looking to de-risk, and open or recently closed pension plan portfolios.

Decades of Data: United States 1900–2022

The 2022 US edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.

Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2022

Calendar year 2022 witnessed multi-decade record inflation and central banks responded with rapidly tightening monetary policy. Rising rates saw the correlation between bonds and equities turn positive, contributing to large declines across most asset classes. Funds flows diverted away from growth and momentum strategies, and yield curves flattened with the ten-year/two-year yield curve becoming inverted in most developed markets, signaling economic uncertainty ahead.