Fixed income assets and gold advanced, as escalating trade tensions cast uncertainty regarding the global growth outlook and global central banks sounded a more dovish tone; equities and other real assets were more mixed. This chart book presents returns and other market metrics for fiscal year 2019.
Myriad rising risks weighed on performance in 2018, leaving investors few places to hide among the sea of red.
Solid fundamentals in most countries should limit the damage.
This chart book presents commentary and analysis of historical currency momentum, valuation, and fundamentals in five key base currencies.
In our 2018 outlook, we review the prospects for several asset classes—developed and emerging markets equities, credit, real assets, sovereign bonds, and currencies—and share the advice of our chief investment strategist.
In our opinion, institutional investors are better served focusing on investing in companies seeking to profit from the development and adoption of blockchain technology and “fintech” (financial technology) more broadly than holding cryptocurrencies directly.
Institutional investors should very carefully consider the risks of cryptocurrencies before investing.
We are not ready to pronounce the strong dollar cycle dead, but do admit the US dollar is in critical condition. Investors should remain partially unhedged or prepared to ride out a period of currency volatility.
Although the election results provide a powerful “risk-on” catalyst in the short term, the underlying long-term problems facing France and the Eurozone are unlikely to go away under a Macron presidency, so the old adage “sell in May and go away” may be vindicated yet again.
We still expect a rising US dollar over the coming year or so; however, the currency is entering the final phase of the strong-dollar cycle and investors should be aware that valuations and historical cycles suggest USD weakness over the coming decade.