Currency

Strategic Currency Hedging Policy: A New Framework

Currency risk is a fact of life for investors, yet few investors have given appropriate thought to setting a strategic hedging policy. The typical approaches have material drawbacks, being either too simplistic or too complex. The new framework we introduce in this paper achieves an attractive balance by seamlessly integrating qualitative portfolio considerations driven by relevant asset class characteristics with a highly simplified yet robust method of incorporating individual currency characteristics. The framework is applicable to a broad set of investors, accommodates lack of precision in measuring currency exposures, separates the question of implementation from policy setting, and helps clearly distinguish between strategic exposures and tactical overlays.

What’s Next for the US Dollar?

Even given the recent decline in the dollar, we still view the currency as vulnerable in the near term, but it ultimately has more to run before the next depreciation cycle begins.

Has the Rapid Rise in the US Dollar Changed Our View on Currency Hedging for US$ Investors?

We continue to believe US$-based investors should hedge a portion of non-US$ currency exposure, particularly that associated with tactical positions in non-US$ assets.* Strategic hedging to mitigate currency volatility may also be appropriate for investors with large allocations (e.g., 20%–25% or higher) to foreign currencies.** We maintain this recommendation even as we regard the US…

Investment Publications Highlights: March 2015

European Economics: Core of the Matter Christel Aranda-Hassel, Mirco Bulega, Neville Hill, Sonali Punhani, and Giovanni Zanni, Credit Suisse, February 27, 2015 European inflation has consistently disappointed since mid-2013. Credit Suisse believes the Eurozone is not experiencing deflation given the decline in prices is not broad-based, inflation expectations are picking up, and the European Central Bank…

Is the Stronger Dollar Impacting US Companies’ Earnings?

A number of companies have blamed the strengthening dollar for disappointing fourth quarter and 2015 earnings guidance. With about 65% of S&P 500 companies having reported, headlines that around 75% of firms are beating expectations obscure the reality of forecasts that have steadily been marked lower. Growth for the quarter (year-over-year) is expected to be…