January’s publication summarizes three articles on currencies. The first discusses why covered interest rate parity has not held since the global financial crisis, the second highlights expectations for major currency pairs this year, and the third argues that hedged equities may not be reducing risks in portfolios.
Change is in the air and the prospect for a bit of sunshine to break through the overhang of slow growth and lower-for-longer yields is palpable. Of course, the sun doesn’t shine forever, and overall our views are little changed. The things we have been worried about for some time—high valuations for certain risk assets, record-low interest rates, slow economic growth—have not gone away. The surest call to make for 2017 is that higher growth expectations will be paired with the distinct possibility of negative outcomes, putting a premium on diversification and liquidity management.
In light of markets’ initial reaction to the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, we wanted to remind clients of our approach to portfolio management by providing thoughts from our Chief Investment Strategist, Celia Dallas.
We expect further weakness in the British pound as uncertainty over the economic impact of “Brexit” drives the currency toward GBP/USD 1.15, and an even larger decline cannot be ruled out.
History implies there is more downside for the pound; we expect the currency to remain volatile and range bound as the long road to Brexit is just starting.
Investors should take seriously the prospect that Brexit is different from the crop of recent crises. Given that a substantial (and growing) constituency across EU countries now supports a breakup, the risks of real departures from the Eurozone no longer seem so remote.
Since December 2015, currency markets have become increasingly divergent, with the US dollar simultaneously weakening and strengthening against different currencies. To provide investors with a better understanding of how their base currency is performing, this chart book presents analysis of historical currency momentum, valuation, and fundamentals in five key base currencies: US dollar (USD), British pound (GBP), euro (EUR), Swiss franc (CHF), and Japanese yen (JPY).
As more countries move from zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) to negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to try to boost growth and conquer deflation, the risks of unintended consequences are rising and investors should tread carefully.
Currency risk is a fact of life for investors, yet few investors have given appropriate thought to setting a strategic hedging policy. The typical approaches have material drawbacks, being either too simplistic or too complex. The new framework we introduce in this paper achieves an attractive balance by seamlessly integrating qualitative portfolio considerations driven by relevant asset class characteristics with a highly simplified yet robust method of incorporating individual currency characteristics. The framework is applicable to a broad set of investors, accommodates lack of precision in measuring currency exposures, separates the question of implementation from policy setting, and helps clearly distinguish between strategic exposures and tactical overlays.
The US dollar may remain under pressure in the near term, but we doubt the strong-dollar cycle is over.