Currency

Can the Strong US Dollar Environment Persist?

Yes. The hawkish Federal Reserve and energy market challenges have contributed to a strengthening of the US dollar in recent quarters, and we expect that trends in both factors may continue to be supportive of the dollar in the short term. Nonetheless, on a longer horizon, historical precedents suggest that the dollar is approaching the end of a multiyear bull run.

Ethereum’s Merge Is a Transformational Event, but Don’t Expect Digital Assets Prices to Come Out of Their Slump

A major Ethereum blockchain software upgrade was successfully completed earlier today, marking a landmark event for the digital assets industry. The upgrade, known as the “merge,” changes how transactions are verified on Ethereum’s blockchain and dramatically improves its energy efficiency. While this is welcome news, we doubt this means the rout in digital assets prices is over in the near term, as macro headwinds continue to be the most important factor driving prices.

Review of Market Performance: Fiscal Year 2022

Fiscal year 2022 was a challenging one for public market investments. Rising levels of inflation across most developed and emerging markets saw central banks become more aggressive in their monetary tightening plans. This in turn saw correlations between bonds and equities become positive; bonds declined as a direct result of higher inflation and tighter policy, while equities weakened in response to the higher cost of capital. This chart book presents returns and other market metrics for fiscal year 2022.

Market Matters: June 30, 2022

Investor sentiment soured in second quarter, leading to steep declines across nearly all asset classes. Global equities foundered as developed and emerging stocks alike fell into bear markets. Rising interest rates and deteriorating global economic growth prospects meant growth stocks trailed value, while large caps edged small caps. Aggressive monetary tightening and high inflation pressured government bond performance, while corporates lagged on rising credit spreads. Real assets also declined, with energy commodities being the lone exception among major asset classes as oil prices continued climbing. Against this backdrop, the US dollar appreciated to a 20-year high, euro performance was mixed, and UK sterling mostly weakened.

Market Matters: May 31, 2022

Risk assets continued their bumpy ride in May as investors attempted to discount a shifting economic narrative. Still, global equities posted only minor declines in local currency terms despite a meaningful increase in volatility. Value topped growth for the fourth time this year, while large caps outperformed small caps. Investment-grade bonds advanced as US Treasury yields mostly fell, whereas European government bond yields continued climbing across maturities. Commodities rose, driven by higher energy prices, while other real assets were mixed. The US dollar and UK sterling weakened, while the euro broadly gained on expectations of tighter monetary policy.

War in Ukraine Dents European Growth Prospects

The ongoing war in Ukraine has exerted a material impact on both global economies and markets, primarily via a steep increase in commodity prices, especially energy. Europe has been particularly affected due to its geographical proximity and the resultant dependence of many of its nations on Russian fossil fuels. This chart book reviews the hit to European growth associated with the war in Ukraine.