Credit/Fixed Income

A Changed Investment Landscape Is Providing Greater Opportunity for US Corporate Pensions

Plan sponsors are strategizing for growth and managing risk in a significantly different investment environment. To accomplish their goals, it is imperative that these changes be taken into consideration. By taking a fresh look at their investment strategies and plan management, organizations have an opportunity to adapt, evolve, and reap significant benefits.

2024 Outlook: Interest Rates

We expect that most major central banks will cut policy rates modestly due to our view that inflation rates will continue to decline. The modest cuts will shift policy rates from restrictive levels closer to neutral levels, which are neither restrictive nor accommodative. Given this view and our view that economic activity will weaken, we see opportunity in US long Treasury securities.

2024 Outlook: Credit

We expect direct lending and European opportunistic private credit funds will outperform their long-term averages because of high asset yields and the pull back in credit availability among traditional lenders. We like structured credits, particularly high-quality collateralized loan obligation debt, and we expect high-yield bonds will outperform leveraged loans. But we remain neutral on high yield because spreads are compressed.