Playing the Long Game—Should the US Treasury Issue Ultra-Long Bonds?
Yes. Issuance of ultra-long Treasury bonds (greater than 30 years to maturity, including potentially 40-, 50-, and 100-year maturities) would benefit multiple constituents.
Credit/Fixed Income
US Manager Universe Statistics: First Quarter 2017
This chart book presents representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance for first quarter 2017. The median Emerging and Frontier Markets Equity manager posted the highest return for the quarter (11.9%), while the median US Small-Cap Value manager posted the highest return for the trailing one-year period (23.7%). The median Cash Management manager posted the lowest return for the quarter (0.3%); for the trailing one year, the median manager in only one strategy, Global ex US Bonds, posted a negative return (-1.3%).
Do the Results of the First Round of the French Presidential Election Sound the All Clear for European Risk Assets?
Although the election results provide a powerful “risk-on” catalyst in the short term, the underlying long-term problems facing France and the Eurozone are unlikely to go away under a Macron presidency, so the old adage “sell in May and go away” may be vindicated yet again.
High-Yield Bonds: Still Not Compelling
We remain negative on high-yield bonds and only slightly more positive on leveraged loans, preferring other credit assets and strategies to help diversify portfolios.
Does US Corporate Tax Reform Endanger Private Debt Strategies?
No. If the interest expense deduction is eliminated, debt issuance may drop slightly, but the demand for senior and mezzanine debt will be little changed, and the risk/reward proposition is still attractive for investors.
A Supportive Argument for Structured Credit
Asset-backed securities enjoy favorable fundamentals and are positioned to outperform high-yield bonds and leveraged loans in 2017, but investors should be selective—valuations are stretched in parts of the market and some sectors face regulatory headwinds.
Decades of Data: 1900–2016
In over 35 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual report on the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. This year’s edition includes new sections on recent trends in the macro environment and business cycles, as well as several new exhibits in other sections. The appendix to this report shows year-by-year, cumulative, and average annual compound returns for as much as 117 years of market data for Australia, Japan, the UK, and the US.
Muni Bonds: Still Valuable in a Changing Environment
While worries about tax reform and pension underfunding dog municipal bonds today, their relative appeal and fair value absolute valuations keep them a solid option for high-bracket taxable investors.
Are “Reflation Trades” Reversing or Just Pausing?
Some of the reflation trades that received a boost from the US election look to be merely taking a breather as investors square positions; however, the fundamental support for others—particularly the outperformance of US small-cap equities—is challenged.
US Manager Universe Statistics: Fourth Quarter 2016
This chart book presents representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance for fourth quarter 2016. The median US Small-Cap Value manager posted the highest median return for fourth quarter 2016 (10.7%) and the year (24.2%). The median Global ex US Bonds manager posted the lowest median return for fourth quarter 2016 (-6.9%), while the Global Growth Equity ex US median return was lowest for the year (-1.1%).