Currency

Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2022

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Calendar year 2022 witnessed multi-decade record inflation and central banks responded with rapidly tightening monetary policy. Rising rates saw the correlation between bonds and equities turn positive, contributing to large declines across most asset classes. Funds flows diverted away from growth and momentum strategies, and yield curves flattened with the ten-year/two-year yield curve becoming inverted in most developed markets, signaling economic uncertainty ahead.

2023 Outlook: Currencies

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We expect the US dollar to remain firm but with limited appreciation relative to 2022, given our view that it is near the end of its incredible multi-year run. We believe gold’s performance will improve and digital assets, in general, will not surpass prior highs, many of which were set in 2021.

Can the Strong US Dollar Environment Persist?

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Yes. The hawkish Federal Reserve and energy market challenges have contributed to a strengthening of the US dollar in recent quarters, and we expect that trends in both factors may continue to be supportive of the dollar in the short term. Nonetheless, on a longer horizon, historical precedents suggest that the dollar is approaching the end of a multiyear bull run.

Ethereum’s Merge Is a Transformational Event, but Don’t Expect Digital Assets Prices to Come Out of Their Slump

A major Ethereum blockchain software upgrade was successfully completed earlier today, marking a landmark event for the digital assets industry. The upgrade, known as the “merge,” changes how transactions are verified on Ethereum’s blockchain and dramatically improves its energy efficiency. While this is welcome news, we doubt this means the rout in digital assets prices is over in the near term, as macro headwinds continue to be the most important factor driving prices.