VantagePoint Series

VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2017

Advice in Brief The global economic acceleration that began last spring has strengthened, the global profit recession is over, and inflation is increasing, but remains at manageable levels. The environment is generally supportive for risk assets, but diversification is still needed, given myriad economic and geopolitical concerns. Given the sharp rally in global equities, we…

VantagePoint: First Quarter 2017

The start of the year is always a good time to focus on personal improvements with resolutions. In this edition of VantagePoint, we share in the spirit of a new year by providing investment resolutions: Ten Temptations to Resist in 2017 Chasing macro and political developments Investing while looking through the rearview mirror Sticking with…

VantagePoint: Fourth Quarter 2016

Advice in Brief Bond yields have reached extreme levels this year amid soft growth, continued central bank purchases, and negative interest rate policies, dragging down prospective returns for a variety of asset classes. Capital markets are unlikely to deliver most investors’ long-term return objectives over the next five to ten years. In such an environment,…

VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2016

In this edition of VantagePoint, we discuss the potential implications of negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In addition, we consider the potential for sustained outperformance in value stocks, which experienced a sharp revival in the second half of the first quarter, noting that we would continue to own value in portfolios, but would not broadly overweight just yet. Energy-related assets and emerging markets equities seem a better way to obtain value-based exposures today. At the same time, we are keeping a close eye on credit markets in search of value opportunities. Finally, we review the outlook for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which we believe offer modest opportunity to outperform relative to nominal Treasuries should headline CPI follow the increase experienced in some of the stickier prices in the index.

VantagePoint: First Quarter 2016

In this edition of VantagePoint, we briefly discuss economic growth prospects, reaffirming the need to be cautious about cyclically oriented assets in an environment of low growth and severe weakness in some corners that could potentially spread. In other words, we remain patient in evaluating opportunities and set high standards for taking cyclical risk. We review our outlook for cheap assets that keep getting cheaper (commodity-related assets and emerging markets equities), evaluate the case for high-yield bonds as yields and spreads have widened, and revisit our global developed markets equity recommendations.

VantagePoint: Fourth Quarter 2015

Advice in Brief The consensus view that a global recession is not imminent seems reasonable, but the possibility cannot be ruled out. This keeps us looking for bargains, but leaving the bar high, as most assets are not cheap and what is cheap is generally cyclically oriented. Asian emerging markets or Asia ex Japan equities…