Is the Environment for Active Management Improving?
We are asked this question on a regular basis, but believe it is fundamentally the wrong question for investors to ask if they are seeking to outperform the market over the long term.
Research Publications Archive
Australia Outlook 2018: Reaching a Tipping Point
Though the risk from rising rates is potentially higher in Australia than elsewhere given household debt levels and the state of the housing market, we judge the risks and outlook as balanced and advise investors to remain neutral on equities and risk.
New Zealand Outlook 2018: The Times They Are A-Changin’
The risks from rising rates are potentially higher in New Zealand than elsewhere given the overvaluation of equities and the housing market. We advise investors to underweight NZ equities, fixed income in general, and the NZ dollar.
Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2017
Equity markets dazzled investors in 2017, as an uptick in global economic activity helped lift expectations for corporate earnings growth across developed and emerging markets. The performance of equities and other asset classes are reviewed in this chart book.
What Should Individual Investors Do Now That the US Tax Bill Has Passed?
The new US tax bill creates little pressure for immediate action by individual investors, even though we expect the legislation to be quite impactful.
What Should Investors Expect in 2018?
Investors should expect more of the same in 2018, as many of the factors that drove risk assets higher this year remain in force. Still, 2017’s returns will be difficult to top for many asset classes, and investors should keep a wary eye out for unexpected inflation and geopolitical risks.
Outlook 2018: Stick Around for Dessert
In our 2018 outlook, we review the prospects for several asset classes—developed and emerging markets equities, credit, real assets, sovereign bonds, and currencies—and share the advice of our chief investment strategist.
Should Institutional Investors Hold Cryptocurrencies?
In our opinion, institutional investors are better served focusing on investing in companies seeking to profit from the development and adoption of blockchain technology and “fintech” (financial technology) more broadly than holding cryptocurrencies directly.
Is Private Equity Replacing Public Equity?
It sure looks like it. The increasingly unforgiving nature of public equity markets, coupled with the continued evolution and growth of private investment markets, is making it easier for more companies to stay private, with some CEOs avowing to do so indefinitely.
Should Investors Position Themselves for US Tax Reform?
We would not seek to position portfolios specifically for tax reform as markets have already priced in some improvement in earnings from tax cuts, and the winners and losers from the proposed tax changes will not be clear until more details are provided. Global cyclical and value stocks offer better risk/reward prospects as they should benefit if tax reforms are passed, but are not reliant on such an outcome.