Under the Microscope: Private vs Public Company Operating Metrics for US Companies
This analysis includes our observations on key metrics by which private equity managers execute their strategy.
Research Publications Archive
Inflation Pressures Central Banks to Begin Normalizing Policies
This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and to a lesser extent the European Central Bank all acted to tighten monetary policies. These tightenings came as inflationary pressures have surged in many countries and as other central banks have looked to rein in simulative policies. But, when combined with above-trend growth expectations next year and central banks’ likely cautious tightening approach, we suspect financial conditions will likely remain accommodative and supportive of risk assets.
Does the New German Government Herald a Return to Fiscal Austerity for Europe?
No. While there is no danger of the fiscal floodgates opening in Europe, the ‘traffic-light’ coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) looks set to oversee some loosening of the fiscal purse strings in Germany.
Outlook 2022: Flying at a Lower Altitude
A compilation of our investment views for 2022.
Inflationary Pressures Will Moderate Some in Second Half
Consumer price inflation is above pre-pandemic trend in the United States and Europe, while producer prices are surging seemingly everywhere. Consistent with consensus forecasts, we expect mounting inflation pressures to ease by second half 2022 as demand for goods abates and supply constraints moderate.
Government Bond Yields Are Likely to Rise as Central Banks Remove Support
Long-dated government bond yields rose in 2021 on strong economic growth and surging inflation. Central banks have maintained their easy money policies despite the rapid recovery in economic conditions, likely keeping yields lower than they would have been otherwise. This may soon change now that several major central banks are starting the process of dialing back support.
The Dollar Finds Temporary Support
The US dollar tends to appreciate during two broad economic regimes. One is when the US economy is materially outperforming its global counterparts, attracting capital looking to benefit from the superior US prospects. The other is when growth slows sharply, attracting safe-haven-seeking capital. This is the “dollar smile” model of the currency, and looking at 2022 through this lens suggests some dollar strength may be in store.
Global Equity Performance Exceeds That of High-Quality Bonds
Global equities have returned more to investors than high-quality global bonds in nearly three quarters of the last 30 years. The margin of outperformance during those years has been considerable, averaging 12.5 percentage points. That high historical success rate, along with our view that healthy economic activity will support both positive earnings growth and risk appetite, leads us to expect that equities will yet again outperform high-quality bonds.
China A-Shares Outperform Global Equities
China’s equity markets have lagged global equities sharply thus far in 2021 in the face of a regulatory crackdown. We expect Chinese equities, particularly China onshore A-shares, to outperform global equities in 2022.
Don’t Expect EM ex China Performance to Impress
Emerging markets ex China equities have underperformed their DM peers this year due, in part, to greater economic and political challenges, which have weighed on sentiment toward the bloc. We expect these issues to persist into next year and are skeptical that EM ex China equities can outperform DM equivalents.