Is Bitcoin a Better Disaster Hedge Than Gold?
While bitcoin and gold share some qualities, these two assets are different and should not be viewed as interchangeable in investment portfolios.
Research Publications Archive
Private Company Operating Metrics: Global Analysis
Our annual analysis comparing private equity globally with public peers.
Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2021
The global economy continued its road to recovery in 2021, as the most severe economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic gradually receded. There were fresh waves of infection during the year, but the public health actions taken to counter them were less economically damaging. In the meantime, fiscal and monetary policy remained at extremely accommodative levels, supporting strong risk-asset performance.
Is the Speculative Stock Downturn a Precursor to a Broader Bear Market?
Even as broad equity indexes remain close to their all-time highs, the proportion of stocks in their own ‘bear market’ has recently increased, particularly among speculative growth stocks.
US Inflation Tests New Heights but Should Ease in 2022
US consumer prices increased 7.0% year-over-year in December, which is the fastest annual rate since 1982, according to government data released today. We expect US inflation will moderate in the coming months, in line with consensus forecasts, but we anticipate it will settle in a higher range than the previous cycle.
Under the Microscope: Private vs Public Company Operating Metrics for US Companies
This analysis includes our observations on key metrics by which private equity managers execute their strategy.
Inflation Pressures Central Banks to Begin Normalizing Policies
This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and to a lesser extent the European Central Bank all acted to tighten monetary policies. These tightenings came as inflationary pressures have surged in many countries and as other central banks have looked to rein in simulative policies. But, when combined with above-trend growth expectations next year and central banks’ likely cautious tightening approach, we suspect financial conditions will likely remain accommodative and supportive of risk assets.
Does the New German Government Herald a Return to Fiscal Austerity for Europe?
No. While there is no danger of the fiscal floodgates opening in Europe, the ‘traffic-light’ coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) looks set to oversee some loosening of the fiscal purse strings in Germany.
Outlook 2022: Flying at a Lower Altitude
A compilation of our investment views for 2022.
Inflationary Pressures Will Moderate Some in Second Half
Consumer price inflation is above pre-pandemic trend in the United States and Europe, while producer prices are surging seemingly everywhere. Consistent with consensus forecasts, we expect mounting inflation pressures to ease by second half 2022 as demand for goods abates and supply constraints moderate.