What Long-Term Investment Implications Should Investors Be Monitoring Related to the War in Ukraine?
Investors should be patient and thoughtful in implementing any changes to portfolios.
Research Publications Archive
Pension Risk Transfers Have Several Downside Risks for US Plan Sponsors
The Pension Risk Transfer (PRT) market has grown markedly over the past decade as recent regulatory changes, coupled with greater pricing competition from insurers, have increased the popularity of PRTs. However, for many plan sponsors, PRTs are not the best solution. Plan sponsors should fully understand the potential impact of a risk transfer transaction on their plan, specifically as it relates to three dimensions explored in this paper: funded status, risk reduction, and future costs. Without this understanding, the hidden cost of these transactions may go unnoticed.
Developed Markets Monetary Policy and Rates Outlook
Government bonds have sold off to start the year as central banks tighten policy in response to inflation pressures. The rise in yields this year may meet some resistance in the near-term, but likely has more room to run given the economic backdrop and policy trajectory. Of course, the war in Ukraine and its impact on the economy will be a key driver of rates for the duration of the conflict.
Decades of Data: United States 1900–2021
The 2021 US edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
How Should Investors Alter Portfolios Considering the War in Ukraine?
Thoughtfully, if at all. At this stage most investors should examine portfolio risks related to the war and monitor market developments.
Annual Review of Endowments: Fiscal Year 2021
Our annual report based on a survey administered to our endowment clients summarizes returns, asset allocation, and other investment-related data for 307 institutions for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2021. We also review peer data on topics such as investment policy, portfolio manager structures, spending, and investment office staffing and governance.
Do Significant Geopolitical Events Tend to Precede Equity Bear Markets?
Global equities tend to sell off following major geopolitical events, but such declines have historically been mild and short-lived, far below the 20% drawdown threshold that is typically considered a bear market.
Will Concerns Over “Greenflation” Derail the Energy Transition?
No. The inflation attributed to green initiatives (known as “greenflation”) is part of the current inflation narrative, but we doubt concerns related to it will derail the global energy transition.
Tighter US Monetary Policy May Limit Upside Potential of Risk Assets
Central banks across the globe are poised to raise policy rates in response to inflation concerns. By examining how US policy rates have impacted US risk assets historically, we consider how assets may react today. These tighter financial conditions may cap the upside potential for risk assets. Within equities and credit, the risks are particularly pronounced in growth stocks and investment-grade corporate bonds.
College and University Investment Pool Returns: Fiscal Year 2021
Our annual survey-based report of 152 US colleges and universities includes commentary and analysis of investment performance, asset allocation, and related trends.