Research Publications Archive

Global Equity Performance Exceeds That of High-Quality Bonds

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Global equities have returned more to investors than high-quality global bonds in nearly three quarters of the last 30 years. The margin of outperformance during those years has been considerable, averaging 12.5 percentage points. That high historical success rate, along with our view that healthy economic activity will support both positive earnings growth and risk appetite, leads us to expect that equities will yet again outperform high-quality bonds.

Interest in Private Investments Continues to Expand

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Investors with mature private investment programs tend to have private exposure to major developed markets, such as the United States and Europe. While many of these investors have added Chinese exposure to their private programs over the last decade, interest has recently increased in less-trafficked Asian markets and more specialized European strategies. We expect this interest will continue to expand next year.

Many Real Estate Assets Will Be Boosted by Secular Tailwinds

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We believe a healthy macro backdrop and strong demand for inflation-sensitive assets will support most real estate assets in 2022. However, given stretched valuations for many core assets and COVID-19–related uncertainty around some sectors, we think return prospects are highest for assets that benefit from secular trends, such as the growing demand for healthcare and broadband.

Allocations to 21st-Century Infrastructure Increase

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The infrastructure market has evolved since the financial crisis. Almost a majority of current investing is now in “21st-century infrastructure,” which includes digital and renewable assets. Given the expected importance of both sectors to future growth, we anticipate that investors will commit greater amounts of capital to each in 2022.

Look to Specialty Finance and Credit Opportunities Strategies for Diversification

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Diversifying private credit strategies provide a good complement to portfolio mainstays. While we believe the economic outlook remains strong, it is not without risks. In direct lending, growing amounts of dry powder are pressuring deal structures and pricing. As a result, we anticipate that commitments to less-correlated private credit funds, such as those focused on life sciences, asset-based lending, and flexible credit strategies, will increase next year.

Macro Hedge Funds Should Benefit from Improved Opportunities

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Rising inflation and moderating growth are generally associated with a higher risk premium as investors start to price in a potential shift in market regime. In the past, global macro managers have generally benefited from better alpha opportunities that arise from volatility. With this backdrop, we expect macro hedge fund performance to be better than average next year.