Outlook 2022: Flying at a Lower Altitude
A compilation of our investment views for 2022.
Outlook 2022
Inflationary Pressures Will Moderate Some in Second Half
Consumer price inflation is above pre-pandemic trend in the United States and Europe, while producer prices are surging seemingly everywhere. Consistent with consensus forecasts, we expect mounting inflation pressures to ease by second half 2022 as demand for goods abates and supply constraints moderate.
Government Bond Yields Are Likely to Rise as Central Banks Remove Support
Long-dated government bond yields rose in 2021 on strong economic growth and surging inflation. Central banks have maintained their easy money policies despite the rapid recovery in economic conditions, likely keeping yields lower than they would have been otherwise. This may soon change now that several major central banks are starting the process of dialing back support.
The Dollar Finds Temporary Support
The US dollar tends to appreciate during two broad economic regimes. One is when the US economy is materially outperforming its global counterparts, attracting capital looking to benefit from the superior US prospects. The other is when growth slows sharply, attracting safe-haven-seeking capital. This is the “dollar smile” model of the currency, and looking at 2022 through this lens suggests some dollar strength may be in store.
Global Equity Performance Exceeds That of High-Quality Bonds
Global equities have returned more to investors than high-quality global bonds in nearly three quarters of the last 30 years. The margin of outperformance during those years has been considerable, averaging 12.5 percentage points. That high historical success rate, along with our view that healthy economic activity will support both positive earnings growth and risk appetite, leads us to expect that equities will yet again outperform high-quality bonds.
China A-Shares Outperform Global Equities
China’s equity markets have lagged global equities sharply thus far in 2021 in the face of a regulatory crackdown. We expect Chinese equities, particularly China onshore A-shares, to outperform global equities in 2022.
Don’t Expect EM ex China Performance to Impress
Emerging markets ex China equities have underperformed their DM peers this year due, in part, to greater economic and political challenges, which have weighed on sentiment toward the bloc. We expect these issues to persist into next year and are skeptical that EM ex China equities can outperform DM equivalents.
Venture Capital Will Continue to Crush It
Globally, the venture capital (VC) industry will continue to evolve as capital floods in seeking compelling returns that can be had for those willing to wait.
Interest in Private Investments Continues to Expand
Investors with mature private investment programs tend to have private exposure to major developed markets, such as the United States and Europe. While many of these investors have added Chinese exposure to their private programs over the last decade, interest has recently increased in less-trafficked Asian markets and more specialized European strategies. We expect this interest will continue to expand next year.
Many Real Estate Assets Will Be Boosted by Secular Tailwinds
We believe a healthy macro backdrop and strong demand for inflation-sensitive assets will support most real estate assets in 2022. However, given stretched valuations for many core assets and COVID-19–related uncertainty around some sectors, we think return prospects are highest for assets that benefit from secular trends, such as the growing demand for healthcare and broadband.