2024 New Zealand Outlook: A Slow Road Ahead
Our outlook for New Zealand is mixed in 2024. We expect economic growth and equity market to remain muted. In contrast, we remain positive on New Zealand government bonds.
Equities
VantagePoint: Can US Equity Dominance Be Sustained?
In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the drivers of US outperformance in the context of historical expansions, consider what markets are pricing in, and if stronger fundamentals for US equities justify higher valuations.
Are Emerging Markets Equities Finally Set to Outperform, Given Expectations for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts This Year?
No. Although emerging markets stocks typically outperform after the onset of Federal Reserve easing, we suspect this episode will be different.
US Manager Universe Statistics: Fourth Quarter 2023
This publication presents manager performance for 37 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
The United Kingdom and Japan Entered Technical Recessions in Q4
UK GDP fell by more than expected in fourth quarter 2023, which pushed the country into a technical recession. It joined fellow G7 economy, Japan, which had earlier undershot expectations and delivered a second consecutive quarter of negative growth.
Market Matters: January 31, 2024
Equity markets continued to climb in January, led by developed markets equities, where Japan and Europe ex UK outperformed.
Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2023
Risk assets enjoyed mostly positive returns in CY 2023. Developed markets equities led as fears over the severity of a possible recession moderated and inflation declined.
Market Matters: December 31, 2023
Risk assets soared in Q4, sending calendar-year returns for several asset classes to multiyear highs.
US Manager Universe Statistics: Third Quarter 2023
This publication presents manager performance for 37 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
2024 Outlook: Public Equities
We expect global equity performance will be below its long-term median level, but we believe investors should hold equity allocations in line with policy targets. Within equities, we see opportunities in developed value, developed small caps, and China. We doubt European and emerging markets ex China equities will outperform, and we believe the share of active strategies that outperform will increase.