In over 40 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual report on the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations…
First quarter’s edition summarizes four articles on trend following. The first article finds that trends are a defining characteristic of capital markets through time; the second argues that trend-following strategies act as risk-mitigation systems, rather than drivers of outperformance; the third suggests that the premium associated with trend-following strategies has faded in recent years; and the fourth considers the interaction between size and momentum strategies.
In 2017, 75.8% of active Global ex US managers outperformed the MSCI EAFE Index gross of fees, with the median manager outperforming by 260 basis points. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database.
Despite strong overall returns, active managers continued their now four-year streak of underperformance against the index, with 54.4% underperforming (gross of fees) in 2017. For the year, the median US mid- to large-cap manager underperformed the Russell 1000® Index by 70 basis points. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database.
No. The US public equity market remains the largest and most liquid in the world and continues to offer a robust opportunity set for investors.
No, most investors should sit tight. The persistence of strong corporate and macroeconomic fundamentals in the face of the recent sell-off and spike in volatility strongly suggests that the duration of the market rout should be limited.
We are asked this question on a regular basis, but believe it is fundamentally the wrong question for investors to ask if they are seeking to outperform the market over the long term.
Though the risk from rising rates is potentially higher in Australia than elsewhere given household debt levels and the state of the housing market, we judge the risks and outlook as balanced and advise investors to remain neutral on equities and risk.
The risks from rising rates are potentially higher in New Zealand than elsewhere given the overvaluation of equities and the housing market. We advise investors to underweight NZ equities, fixed income in general, and the NZ dollar.
This chart book presents representative long-only and hedge fund manager performance for fourth quarter 2017. The median US Growth Equity ex Small-Cap manager posted the highest median return for fourth quarter 2017, returning 6.8%. Emerging & Frontier Markets Equity managers posted the best returns for the one-year period ending December 31, 2017, with a median return of 36.8%. The median US Intermediate-Term Bonds manager posted the lowest median return for fourth quarter 2017 (0.0%), while the median Cash Management return was lowest for the one-year period ending December 31, 2017 (1.1%).