Scandal, Recession, and Impeachment, Yet Brazilian Stocks Are Flying
Brazil’s equity valuations, though by no means rich, are out of sync with its political uncertainty and economic distress.
Equities
What’s the Outlook for US Equities Given the Earnings Recession?
Risks to US equities remain firmly skewed to the downside, but as long as the Fed remains on hold and the twin earnings headwinds of weak oil/strong dollar continue to fade, US equities could continue to muddle along near recent levels.
US Manager Universe Statistics: First Quarter 2016
This chart book presents representative marketable and hedge fund manager performance for first quarter 2016.
Japanese Equities: Is Abenomics Becoming a Liability?
We retain our overweight to Japanese stocks, but are watching closely to ensure economic or political events do not undermine the promising case for company fundamentals.
Will Value Stocks Continue to Outperform?
Prospects are tenuous for sustained outperformance of value stocks on the whole. We recommend owning value stocks, but would not broadly overweight just yet.
Are Eurozone Equities Still Poised to Outperform in 2016?
Yes, but the amount of outperformance could be limited, and growing macro-driven volatility will likely cap the absolute level of returns.
Why Have Global Bank Stocks Been Whipsawed to Start the Year?
Sentiment toward the global banking sector was extremely poor to start the year, owing to a variety of factors, but reversed sharply in recent weeks as the latest news and data seemed to alleviate investors’ worst fears.
Decades of Data: 1900–2015
In over 25 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual analysis of the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. This year’s edition is accompanied by an appendix showing year-by-year, cumulative, and average annual compound returns for as much as 115 years of market data for Australia, Japan, the UK, and the US.
US Manager Universe Statistics: Fourth Quarter and Calendar Year 2015
This chart book presents representative marketable and hedge fund manager performance for fourth quarter 2015. The median US REIT manager again posted the highest median quarterly return, 7.7% for fourth quarter 2015. The lowest median returns for the quarter (-1.4%) were posted by the median High-Yield Bonds manager and the median Credit Opportunities manager.
Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2015
Investors navigating the marketplace in 2015 faced numerous challenges, including US$ strength, commodity market stresses, and global growth concerns. To a large extent, asset class returns were either unexceptional or downright difficult. This brief chart book reviews returns and other metrics for the calendar year.