Investors should take seriously the prospect that Brexit is different from the crop of recent crises. Given that a substantial (and growing) constituency across EU countries now supports a breakup, the risks of real departures from the Eurozone no longer seem so remote.
Since December 2015, currency markets have become increasingly divergent, with the US dollar simultaneously weakening and strengthening against different currencies. To provide investors with a better understanding of how their base currency is performing, this chart book presents analysis of historical currency momentum, valuation, and fundamentals in five key base currencies: US dollar (USD), British pound (GBP), euro (EUR), Swiss franc (CHF), and Japanese yen (JPY).
As more countries move from zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) to negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to try to boost growth and conquer deflation, the risks of unintended consequences are rising and investors should tread carefully.
Currency risk is a fact of life for investors, yet few investors have given appropriate thought to setting a strategic hedging policy. The typical approaches have material drawbacks, being either too simplistic or too complex. The new framework we introduce in this paper achieves an attractive balance by seamlessly integrating qualitative portfolio considerations driven by relevant asset class characteristics with a highly simplified yet robust method of incorporating individual currency characteristics. The framework is applicable to a broad set of investors, accommodates lack of precision in measuring currency exposures, separates the question of implementation from policy setting, and helps clearly distinguish between strategic exposures and tactical overlays.
The US dollar may remain under pressure in the near term, but we doubt the strong-dollar cycle is over.
While a currency crisis in China can be avoided, much depends on investor psychology and how China manages the capital account.
Even given the recent decline in the dollar, we still view the currency as vulnerable in the near term, but it ultimately has more to run before the next depreciation cycle begins.
We do not anticipate a systemic emerging markets currency crisis like that of the late 1990s, though EM currency weakness and volatility are likely to persist for the next few years.
We continue to believe US$-based investors should hedge a portion of non-US$ currency exposure, particularly that associated with tactical positions in non-US$ assets.* Strategic hedging to mitigate currency volatility may also be appropriate for investors with large allocations (e.g., 20%–25% or higher) to foreign currencies.** We maintain this recommendation even as we regard the US…
European Economics: Core of the Matter Christel Aranda-Hassel, Mirco Bulega, Neville Hill, Sonali Punhani, and Giovanni Zanni, Credit Suisse, February 27, 2015 European inflation has consistently disappointed since mid-2013. Credit Suisse believes the Eurozone is not experiencing deflation given the decline in prices is not broad-based, inflation expectations are picking up, and the European Central Bank…