Research Publications Archive

Where Has All the Money Gone? Keeping an Eye on Inflation

Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?” Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Holmes: “That was the curious incident.” —Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, “Silver Blaze” Since 2008, US money supply (M2)…

Will the ECB Make a Move?

Recent comments by several ECB governors have fueled speculation that the bank might ease further at its upcoming meeting on April 3. While the Eurozone is slowly recovering, unemployment remains elevated and concerns are mounting over deflation. Near-zero interest rates limit the ECB’s options, leading some analysts to believe a more extreme step, such as…

CA Perspectives: Spring 2014

In this issue David Thurston and Andy Martin review some of the common behavioral traps that long-term investors with diversified portfolios fall into during market rallies like the one we have experienced in recent years in “Just Another FOMO Market” Kyle Johnson discusses how to think about impact investing within your overall portfolio strategy in…

Escalator Up, Elevator Down? Recent RMB Weakness

China’s currency recently experienced its sharpest decline since it unpegged from the US dollar nearly nine years ago. China wants a more volatile exchange rate to introduce two-way risk in the currency market, meaning a continued steady rise in its currency is not a foregone conclusion. To help offset slowing investment growth, Chinese authorities may…

Municipal Bonds Find Their Footing in the New Year

We maintain our neutral positioning for municipal bonds As prices fell and yields rose in the latter half of 2013, investors pulled money from muni bond funds, forcing managers to sell bonds in an increasingly illiquid market. Conditions reversed around year-end into 2014 as Treasury yields have fallen, money began flowing in, and issuance plummeted….

Annual Analysis of Independent School Investment Pool Returns: 2012-13

This year we highlight unfunded commitment levels to private investments and estimated annual liquidity requirements for the portfolio. We also explore policy portfolio benchmarking and spending policy practices, including additions and withdrawals to the portfolio and support of operations. As with past years, this report also reviews investment management structures, the frequency of external managers…

Annual Analysis of Museum and Library Investment Pool Returns: 2012-13

This year we highlight unfunded commitment levels to private investments and estimated annual liquidity requirements for the portfolio. We also explore policy portfolio benchmarking and spending policy practices, including additions and withdrawals to the portfolio and support of operations. As with past years, this report also reviews investment management structures, the frequency of external managers…

Hallmarks of Successful Active Equity Managers

Executive Summary The debate about “active versus passive” investment management has received considerable attention. The average active equity manager regularly struggles to outpace the market; however, some managers perform better than average and studies generally conclude that some managers do exhibit skill. As a result, we attempt to answer a different question: how can investors…

Reconsidering Bond Benchmarks

While cap-weighted benchmarks for bond portfolios remain the norm, indexes based on other criteria are increasingly available. Benchmarks are an essential tool for investors to monitor and analyze overall portfolio performance, as well as the success of investment strategies and managers. Comparing manager performance against benchmarks also can help inform decisions about whether to use…