Since bottoming on February 5, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has returned more than 10%, dragging year-to-date returns into the black. Yields on EM debt, meanwhile, have fallen sharply, and many EM currencies have posted strong gains. At the same time, Chinese growth appears to be slowing and debt problems mounting, while the “Fragile 5”…
Given the tremendous growth in debt-financed activity, investors are rightly wondering whether China is near a tipping point where its credit boom becomes a credit bust. China recently made headlines when it allowed its first ever bond default. A second smaller bond default has occurred in the weeks since. Add to that various news stories…
We maintain our neutral positioning on Japanese equities The “arrows” of Abenomics in Japan appear to be misfiring: growth is slowing, the yen has stabilized, and recent increases in inflation may prove temporary. Despite the impressive recovery in Japanese earnings they remain 30% below 2007 levels. Whether the third “arrow” of Abenomics will hit the…
Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?” Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Holmes: “That was the curious incident.” —Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, “Silver Blaze” Since 2008, US money supply (M2)…
Recent comments by several ECB governors have fueled speculation that the bank might ease further at its upcoming meeting on April 3. While the Eurozone is slowly recovering, unemployment remains elevated and concerns are mounting over deflation. Near-zero interest rates limit the ECB’s options, leading some analysts to believe a more extreme step, such as…
In this issue David Thurston and Andy Martin review some of the common behavioral traps that long-term investors with diversified portfolios fall into during market rallies like the one we have experienced in recent years in “Just Another FOMO Market” Kyle Johnson discusses how to think about impact investing within your overall portfolio strategy in…
China’s currency recently experienced its sharpest decline since it unpegged from the US dollar nearly nine years ago. China wants a more volatile exchange rate to introduce two-way risk in the currency market, meaning a continued steady rise in its currency is not a foregone conclusion. To help offset slowing investment growth, Chinese authorities may…
We maintain our neutral positioning for municipal bonds As prices fell and yields rose in the latter half of 2013, investors pulled money from muni bond funds, forcing managers to sell bonds in an increasingly illiquid market. Conditions reversed around year-end into 2014 as Treasury yields have fallen, money began flowing in, and issuance plummeted….
This year we highlight unfunded commitment levels to private investments and estimated annual liquidity requirements for the portfolio. We also explore policy portfolio benchmarking and spending policy practices, including additions and withdrawals to the portfolio and support of operations. As with past years, this report also reviews investment management structures, the frequency of external managers…
This year we highlight unfunded commitment levels to private investments and estimated annual liquidity requirements for the portfolio. We also explore policy portfolio benchmarking and spending policy practices, including additions and withdrawals to the portfolio and support of operations. As with past years, this report also reviews investment management structures, the frequency of external managers…