Research Publications Archive

The Growing Market for Green Bonds

The market for labeled green bonds—bonds whose proceeds are specifically “ring-fenced” for environmental or climate mitigation or adaptation projects—has grown rapidly since the first green bond issue in 2008. Growing diversity of issuers, larger average issuance size, and estimated full-year 2014 issuance of $40 billion (half in corporates) all suggest that the green bond universe…

Treasury Floats a Noteworthy Idea … And the Market Loves It

The launch of the new Treasury floating rate notes has been a successful venture The initial auction for Treasury FRNs saw aggressive participation, with a high bid-to-cover ratio. The ratio came down slightly in subsequent auctions. Quarterly issuance has so far exceeded early predictions, and these securities have already assumed an important place in the…

Combing Through the Cash Pile

A string of headlines over the last few months has thrust the issue of cash held by the foreign subsidiaries of US companies back into the spotlight. First was Apple Inc.’s announcement that the company was increasing its dividend and buying back more stock while at the same time issuing $12 billion in debt to…

Review of Market Performance: Fiscal Year 2014

Summary Observations: Fiscal Year 2014 US equities returned 24.6% in the fiscal year ended June 30, 2014, ranking 31st in 114 fiscal years of data. The health care, information technology, and materials sectors all returned above 30%. All developed markets ended the fiscal year in the black, with Europe ex UK the best-performing region and…

Echoes of 2007?

Ominously familiar warning signs beg the question of whether a replay of 2007 is at hand; the answer is complicated Recent market activity has seemingly combined some of the excesses of 1999 with those of 2007. On a more general level, investors have grown more bullish and volatility across asset classes has collapsed. In contrast…

Should Investors Take Advantage of Falling Equity Volatility by Protecting Against Market Drawdowns with Equity Options?

Stories about equity volatility plunging to “historical lows” have been ubiquitous in the financial press recently. When accompanied by references to above-average valuations and “over-heated” markets, the implication seems to be that investors should rush to buy protection via equity puts or volatility index options, presumably because some decline in equity markets (and thus increase…

Are We Seeing a Return of 2007-Era Behavior in Credit Markets?

Bankers are fond of saying “bad loans are made during good times.” With equity markets reaching new highs, volatility and interest rates hovering around historic lows, positive economic growth, and increased merger activity, we could characterize today’s environment as the “good times.” Since credit markets run in cycles alongside the broader economy, investors need to…