A Closer Look at the US Equity Bull Market
Ongoing growth headwinds, an earnings recession, and still-elevated valuations make us skeptics that US equities’ four-year bull market can continue much longer.
Research Publications Archive
How Concentrated Is Value Creation in Venture Capital?
Conventional wisdom says that only ten venture-backed investments matter per year and that an equally concentrated number of certain venture firms makes those investments, but conventional wisdom may lead investors to miss attractive opportunities with managers that can provide exposure to substantial value creation.
Behavioral Risk
In 2009, we published a paper titled “Behavioral Risk” that described the universal tendency to make poor investment decisions in times of crisis because individuals typically allow instinct and emotion to override objective analysis of the pertinent data. The ideas in the paper remain as pertinent as ever. To return investors’ attention to this important topic, we are republishing the paper with comments that reflect the ideas in light of the current environment.
The Potential Attractions of Frontier Markets Equities
Frontier markets equities present an interesting opportunity for long-term investors with an understanding of the risks and pitfalls of this asset class.
Given the Recent Backup in Yields, Should Investors Look to Add High-Yield Exposure?
Yields have indeed risen sharply over the past several months, but given the cyclical nature of the asset class, along with worrisome trends in issuance volume and quality, we still do not find them compelling.
Venture Capital Disrupts Itself: Breaking the Concentration Curse
The widely held belief that 90% of venture industry performance is generated by just the top ten firms is a catchy but unsupported claim that may lead investors to miss attractive opportunities with managers that can provide exposure to substantial value creation.
Value Strategies Down, Not Out
Global value style equity investing has been challenged in 2015, but long-term investors may be well served by staying the course, as the time to rebalance further into value may be on the horizon.
Energy MLPs: Attractive Yields in a Time of Uncertainty
Unit prices have sold off in sympathy with energy-related assets, but higher yields and reasonable fundamentals should translate into strong returns in the long term.
What’s Next for the US Dollar?
Even given the recent decline in the dollar, we still view the currency as vulnerable in the near term, but it ultimately has more to run before the next depreciation cycle begins.
Now That Emerging Markets Equities Are Very Undervalued, Should Investors Increase Overweights?
No. We continue to advise small overweights to Asia ex Japan or emerging Asia relative to US equities, but would not suggest investors add more substantial overweights unless they have an exceptionally long time horizon and the ability to tolerate substantial volatility. The risks to emerging markets are well known. Commodity weakness, a slowdown in…