The Presidential Cycle: Less Than Meets the Eye
Investors should cast a critical eye on claims that the presidential cycle will provide investment/trading opportunities.
Research Publications Archive
Are the Forces Creating Record Low Government Bond Yields Here to Stay?
Investors that buy developed markets government bonds have been faced with unpalatably skimpy or even negative yields on offer for some time. The question is no longer why, but for how long? Fed funds futures and benchmark ten-year US Treasuries suggest the answer is several more years, a similar timeline to other markets. But as we know, markets have a tendency to surprise.
Annual Analysis of Foundation Investment Pool Returns: Calendar Year 2015
This report reviews portfolio returns, asset allocation, investment management structures, and payout characteristics for 113 foundations. Analysis and exhibits include performance attribution, risk analytics, policy portfolio benchmarking, the impact of private investment programs on portfolio liquidity, the use of external managers by asset class, payout rates, payout distribution components, and payout objectives.
Keeping Underwater Endowments Afloat (and the Programs They Support)
When endowment funds slip “underwater,” institutions must evaluate the tradeoff between distributing anticipated budget support and restoring the endowment to its original value.
The Private Path to Latin America’s Most Dynamic Sectors
For investors seeking regional diversification and differentiated exposure to emerging markets, Latin American private equity and venture capital warrants serious consideration.
Is a Crisis Likely in the UK Commercial Property Sector?
No, but we do expect UK commercial property prices to re-rate to a lower level as investors grapple with the consequences of the Brexit vote.
Has the GBP Bottomed? Not Likely
History implies there is more downside for the pound; we expect the currency to remain volatile and range bound as the long road to Brexit is just starting.
Brexit: Outlier or Harbinger?
Investors should take seriously the prospect that Brexit is different from the crop of recent crises. Given that a substantial (and growing) constituency across EU countries now supports a breakup, the risks of real departures from the Eurozone no longer seem so remote.
Will Europe and Italy Reach an Agreement on the Fate of Italian Banks?
With serious political risks and the possibility of contagion if left unresolved, a solution to the Italian banking crisis that avoids substantial hits to bank bondholders and creditors is likely.
Review of Market Performance: Fiscal Year 2016
Investors grappled with the trajectory of global growth and the dramatic increase in negative-yielding debt in the year ended June 30, 2016. This brief chart book looks at returns and other market metrics for fiscal year 2016.