Fish, but only if investors can accept very lumpy returns. The SG Trend Index of ten large trend followers (e.g., Commodity Trading Advisors or managed futures strategies) fell more than 4% in both September and October and only matched cash’s return over the past five years.
As sponsors of US single-employer defined benefit plans know all too well, interest rates have experienced dramatic swings in recent years. While many plan sponsors have adapted to this environment by strategically hedging their liability interest rate risk, many are still questioning the efficacy of doing so—especially when interest rates appear to be low. Yet, failing to hedge long-duration liabilities with long-duration assets is a risky endeavor that exposes the plan sponsor to significant downside risk.
Our thoughts on key macro questions, emerging opportunities, and risks in 2020.
No, we don’t think so. While euro area economic activity has weakened meaningfully, with real GDP growth falling to its lowest annual pace (1.1%) since 2013 in third quarter, strong equity returns aren’t dependent on robust economic growth. Ultimately, we continue to like the bloc as part of a risk-controlled overweight to global ex US equities funded from US equities.
A universal approach to portfolio construction can help schemes achieve required return targets whilst adding additional upside from alpha generation; reduce risk through true diversification; and generate sufficient income to comfortably meet both planned and unplanned cashflow needs.
Yes. Economic growth is slowing, and governments have limited monetary and fiscal policy responses available in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. Today, investors need to weigh the investment implications of likely policy options.
Investors would be wise to consider climate science in their investment decision-making process. Climate risk is likely underestimated by financial markets, and there is a window of opportunity for investors to get ahead of the curve, given our expected future repricing of this risk. This paper provides a high-level overview of the current climate science and discusses a few economic implications. Put simply, we all need to think like scientists now.
No. But, the game has changed and to be successful, investors should adopt a new commitment strategy.
European credit investors have enjoyed significant gains in 2019 as the combination of weak economic data and central bank easing has pushed yields lower. Investors will need to be nimble to find attractive risk-adjusted returns in the months ahead.
Our biannual report summarizes asset allocation and total investment performance for 29 of Cambridge Associates’ UK foundation and endowment clients.