As we write in March 2020, COVID-19 is spreading across much of the world, undercutting economic activity. While we are unsure of how this situation will unfold, we have long believed that the best way to guard against future uncertainty is to have a well-constructed portfolio. One key component in that is understanding the relationship between asset prices and inflation.
On Sunday, the Federal Reserve Bank announced a host of emergency measures intended to improve bond market liquidity and reduce borrowing costs, which come in response to rising signs of dislocation across Treasury, municipal, and corporate bond markets.
Of active emerging markets equity managers, 64% outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gross of fees in 2019 after three consecutive years of underperformance. This is a companion piece to the US, Global, and Global ex US charts books already published.
This week, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank both announced stimulus measures aimed at responding to the growing impact of COVID-19.
In 2019, 63% of active global ex US managers outperformed the MSCI EAFE Index gross of fees, with the median manager outperforming by 183 basis points. This is a companion piece to the US and Global chart books already published.
No, we do not believe investors should add a new overweight to public energy at this time. Political machinations and virus-induced uncertainty are weighing on oil prices at present, and it seems unlikely that both of these obstacles will soon be lifted. Instead, investors should closely monitor positioning to ensure their current level of energy exposure is intentional.
In 2019, 54% of active global managers underperformed the MSCI World Index (gross of fees), with the median manager underperforming by 44 basis points. This a companion piece to the US chart book already published.
Yields on ten-year Treasuries dropped below 50 basis points (bps) today for the first time in history as COVID-19 fears spread. While we cannot rule out a recession, given the uncertainties associated with the virus and its impact on economic activity, we believe today’s low yields are less about long-term growth forecasts and more about expectations of further Federal Reserve easing, risk aversion, and liquidity preferences.
The US Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 50 basis points today, highlighting the serious challenges facing the global economy. Still, we don’t believe investors should cut risk. Very few have an informational edge regarding COVID-19’s market impact, and investors could be left underexposed when and if markets rebound.
For the sixth straight year, the majority of active mid- to large-cap managers underperformed in 2019, with 62.0% lagging the benchmark (gross of fees). This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database.