Investment Publications Highlights: Fourth Quarter 2019
Fourth quarter’s edition summarizes articles on FX markets.
Research Publications Archive
College and University Flash Statistics Report: Fiscal Year 2019
The College and University Flash Statistics Report provides a first look at the results of our 2019 College and University Investment Pool Returns survey. Included in the analysis are a summary of investment pool returns and asset allocation for 164 colleges and universities. Additionally, the report provides detailed data by institution on asset allocation and target asset allocation. Look for our full annual analysis in the upcoming College and University Investment Pool Returns report to be published later this winter.
With Trend-Following Funds Down Sharply This Fall, Should Investors Fish or Cut Bait?
Fish, but only if investors can accept very lumpy returns. The SG Trend Index of ten large trend followers (e.g., Commodity Trading Advisors or managed futures strategies) fell more than 4% in both September and October and only matched cash’s return over the past five years.
Liability-Hedging Strategies for US Plan Sponsors in the Low Interest Rate Era
As sponsors of US single-employer defined benefit plans know all too well, interest rates have experienced dramatic swings in recent years. While many plan sponsors have adapted to this environment by strategically hedging their liability interest rate risk, many are still questioning the efficacy of doing so—especially when interest rates appear to be low. Yet, failing to hedge long-duration liabilities with long-duration assets is a risky endeavor that exposes the plan sponsor to significant downside risk.
Outlook 2020: Ten Investing Themes for the Coming Year
Our thoughts on key macro questions, emerging opportunities, and risks in 2020.
Will Weak Economic Data in the Euro Area Undercut Its Equities?
No, we don’t think so. While euro area economic activity has weakened meaningfully, with real GDP growth falling to its lowest annual pace (1.1%) since 2013 in third quarter, strong equity returns aren’t dependent on robust economic growth. Ultimately, we continue to like the bloc as part of a risk-controlled overweight to global ex US equities funded from US equities.
Pension Schemes in Pursuit of Income, Growth, and Diversification
A universal approach to portfolio construction can help schemes achieve required return targets whilst adding additional upside from alpha generation; reduce risk through true diversification; and generate sufficient income to comfortably meet both planned and unplanned cashflow needs.
Should Investors be Concerned About Central Banks’ Ability to Fight the Next Recession?
Yes. Economic growth is slowing, and governments have limited monetary and fiscal policy responses available in the event this slowdown becomes a recession. Today, investors need to weigh the investment implications of likely policy options.
A Summary of Climate Change Science for Investors
Investors would be wise to consider climate science in their investment decision-making process. Climate risk is likely underestimated by financial markets, and there is a window of opportunity for investors to get ahead of the curve, given our expected future repricing of this risk. This paper provides a high-level overview of the current climate science and discusses a few economic implications. Put simply, we all need to think like scientists now.
Is Private Equity Energy Dead?
No. But, the game has changed and to be successful, investors should adopt a new commitment strategy.