Will Brazil be Forced to Tango?
Will Brazil’s next president maintain the fiscal discipline and investor confidence necessary to avoid defaulting on its debt?
Research Publications Archive
Making Sense of U.S. Equity Earnings (Addendum)
S&P Core and NIPA earnings address many of the shortcomings associated with reported (GAAP) and operating earnings.
Europe’s Economy: Growth Engines Stalled
Will Europe increase fiscal spending at the risk of undermining both the Stability and Growth Pact, as well as the EMU?
How Will You Earn What You Spend?
This short paper reviews asset class valuations and offers summary asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation in the Bear Market
This paper speculates that while some of the excess from the equity bubble years has been worked off, the secular bottom will probably not arrive until valuations improve and despair reaches levels proportional to the preceding bull market euphoria.
Economic Growth in Japan–the Moment Passes
Springtime in Japan brought welcome signs of economic recovery, but these moments proved to be as fleeting as the bloom of cherry blossoms.
Asset Allocation in a Bear Market
This paper speculates that while some of the excess from the equity bubble years has been worked off, the secular bottom will probably not arrive until valuations improve and despair reaches levels proportional to the preceding bull market euphoria.
U.K. Indexed-Linked Securities
While linkers may be inexpensive relative to nominal gilts, they are no bargain.
Benchmarking
This report suggests preconditions to the selection of appropriate benchmarks and the flaws inherent even in careful selection. Discrete sections for public market investments, marketable alternatives, private equity, and real estate are included.
Why We Consider Japanese Equities Overvalued
Although several valuation metrics suggest that Japanese equities are fairly valued we consider them overvalued because of the precipitous state of the economy.