New Zealand has arguably fared better during the global pandemic than any other developed country. While 2021 should see the New Zealand economy continue to fare well, complacency is the biggest risk, both in regards to COVID-19 and global growth, but also in relation to sky-high equity valuations, both at home and abroad.
Yes, because rising concentration reflects rising valuations for the largest stocks, which are likely to serve as a headwind to index returns. Further, the growing market share of these companies increases the potential for rising regulatory oversight.
This report summarizes the results of our fiscal year college and university survey. Included are commentary and analysis of investment performance, asset allocation, and related trends for 159 colleges and universities. The report also summarizes peer data on topics such as investment policy, portfolio manager structures, spending, and investment office staffing and governance.
Investors have predominantly relied on developed markets sovereign bonds for defense in balanced portfolios, but low rates have diminished their diversification characteristics. We find that a diversified basket of “defensive” assets has provided comparable diversification characteristics to developed markets sovereign bonds historically. While this basket may not solve all challenges associated with today’s low-rate environment, we view it as better equipped than developed markets sovereign bonds to defend balanced portfolios during future periods of equity market stress.
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic caused steep declines in risk markets in first quarter 2020. Safe-haven assets, such as core sovereign bonds and gold, performed strongly during this period and have held on to much of their gains. Large-scale intervention by both monetary and fiscal authorities eventually put a floor under risk markets, driving rapid recoveries and pushing equity markets to new highs.
Yes, we expect it will. Tomorrow, Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th president of the United States, and while his party will only hold a slim majority in Congress, we believe his key policy initiatives will provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets in 2021.
Analyzing operating metrics can provide insights into the process by which private equity managers execute their strategy. This update to our annual report includes comparisons of private equity globally (roughly 9,600 companies in total) with public peers, as well as regional comparisons for approximately 5,000 US-based companies, more than 2,400 European companies, and more than 1,600 Asian companies acquired by PE firms from 2000 through 2019.
Healthcare systems appear to have navigated the most severe financial impact of the pandemic. We believe the present time provides an opportunity to reset investment strategy and recalibrate portfolios as necessary.
The 2020 Under the Microscope analysis highlights US PE industry trends leading into the COVID-19 crisis. The analyses indicate that 2019 was in many ways a continuation of the cycle of elevated acquisition and leverage multiples, with PE-backed companies showing sustained revenue and EBITDA growth.
As 2020 comes to a close, we expect some key investment drivers to persist into next year. While our views speak to many different challenges confronting investors, including the poor bond yields on offer, the fate of US-China relations, and where to find growth, they are rooted in the belief that 2021 will be a year of healing for the global economy.