Research Publications Archive

US Real Estate Outlook: Patience Required

This paper discusses recent trends in US commercial real estate fundamentals and looks ahead to what might be in store for the remainder of 2021. Overall, we are reluctant to sound overly bullish about the broad asset class, as the outlook for some sectors is unclear. Still, for investors looking to immediately deploy capital, we highlight two categories of opportunities.

Decades of Data: Emerging Markets 1987–2020

The 2020 Emerging Markets edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. It also analyzes the historic economic declines and sharp asset price movements that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

An Investment Perspective on Healthcare System Mergers

During the past decade, nonprofit healthcare providers have undergone a wave of accelerating consolidation. When systems combine, the new entity created will have new financial health metrics. A fresh review of how a transaction will impact the newly combined long-term investment pool (LTIP) is crucial. This paper examines key variables to assess and specific examples of how a LTIP might restructure post-merger.