Causes and Implications of the Russian Oil Supply Shock
The outlook for oil remains highly uncertain and is dependent on various political decisions.
Research Publications Archive
Decades of Data: Europe ex UK 1900–2021
The 2021 Europe ex UK edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
Would Adoption of Policies Like the Rooney Rule by Asset Allocators Encourage Greater Diversity Among Investment Managers?
No. Instead, we favor a comprehensive approach that addresses inequities throughout the manager selection process.
Is the Decline in Chinese Equities Justified by Market Fundamentals?
We don’t think so, as the markets are pricing in more severe conditions than we believe are warranted.
2022 New Zealand Outlook: Balancing the Pivot
New Zealand’s COVID-19 containment strategy served the economy well during the early days of the pandemic. However, New Zealand equities and bonds suffered in 2021 as growth slowed to a halt late in the year due to lockdown measures and inflation moved higher due to labour market constraints. Heading into 2022, New Zealand authorities have pivoted the strategy from zero–COVID-19 to minimisation and protection, while still embarking on a monetary policy tightening cycle. Balancing both strategies will be key to supporting New Zealand’s economic growth in 2022.
Keep Your Pencil Sharp on Your Active Value Exposures
The prospect of higher interest rates has contributed to recent equity market volatility and provided a wake-up call for investors underweight some traditional value sectors. What may surprise some investors is that even managers that style themselves as value-oriented may be underweight bellwether value sectors. Now is a good time to sharpen your pencil on value manager exposures.
Decades of Data: United Kingdom 1900–2021
The 2021 UK edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
What Long-Term Investment Implications Should Investors Be Monitoring Related to the War in Ukraine?
Investors should be patient and thoughtful in implementing any changes to portfolios.
Pension Risk Transfers Have Several Downside Risks for US Plan Sponsors
The Pension Risk Transfer (PRT) market has grown markedly over the past decade as recent regulatory changes, coupled with greater pricing competition from insurers, have increased the popularity of PRTs. However, for many plan sponsors, PRTs are not the best solution. Plan sponsors should fully understand the potential impact of a risk transfer transaction on their plan, specifically as it relates to three dimensions explored in this paper: funded status, risk reduction, and future costs. Without this understanding, the hidden cost of these transactions may go unnoticed.
Developed Markets Monetary Policy and Rates Outlook
Government bonds have sold off to start the year as central banks tighten policy in response to inflation pressures. The rise in yields this year may meet some resistance in the near-term, but likely has more room to run given the economic backdrop and policy trajectory. Of course, the war in Ukraine and its impact on the economy will be a key driver of rates for the duration of the conflict.