Are Venture Returns About to Cycle?
Yes. We do expect venture capital (VC) returns to be negatively impacted in the coming quarters but doubt that impact will be as pronounced and wholesale as it was during the dot-com era.
Research Publications Archive
War in Ukraine Dents European Growth Prospects
The ongoing war in Ukraine has exerted a material impact on both global economies and markets, primarily via a steep increase in commodity prices, especially energy. Europe has been particularly affected due to its geographical proximity and the resultant dependence of many of its nations on Russian fossil fuels. This chart book reviews the hit to European growth associated with the war in Ukraine.
Can Commodities Still Provide Shelter in the Storm as Both Stocks and Bonds Suffer Losses?
Yes, although such investments are not for the faint of heart. As we have seen in 2022, both stocks and bonds have lost value as inflation expectations have escalated.
While Great Entrepreneurs Leap, Great Investors Plan
As entrepreneurs know well, the process of creating and managing a successful business is complex and requires great skill, insight, and hard work. Successful management of significant wealth requires similar attributes; however, not all the characteristics fundamental to entrepreneurial success translate to effective portfolio management. This paper presents five recommendations for those looking to build an investment framework that can be as successful and personally rewarding as building a business.
The Plunge in Digital Asset Prices Highlights the Industry’s Volatility
Investors should not be surprised by the recent volatility across digital assets.
Fed Raises Rates and Begins Balance Sheet Run-off
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced it would raise the target range for the Fed funds rate 50 basis points (bps) to 0.75%–1.00%. It also formalized plans to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet starting June 1, with an initial monthly cap of $47.5 billion, rising to $95 billion per month on September 1.
Charting New Waters: What Pension Plan Sponsors Should Know About Digital Assets
Blockchain technology and digital assets could disrupt the way many of the companies in a pension plan’s current investment portfolio do business. Pension plan sponsors can benefit from an increased understanding of blockchain technology and its potential portfolio implications. In addition to providing a general overview of how blockchain technology and digital assets investments work, this paper answers questions on related challenges and developments for plan sponsors to consider.
Should Investors Go Long Duration Following This Year’s Sell-off in US Treasuries?
No, we do not recommend that investors go long duration in fixed income portfolios. The uncertain inflation outlook and potential for more aggressive policy tightening suggest yields could rise further.
Emerging Markets Equities: It’s Not All About the Fed
The Federal Reserve is poised to continue lifting interest rates this year. Many investors tend to view tightening Fed policy as a headwind for emerging markets (EM) equity performance and may be tempted to dial back exposure to the bloc, but market history is an inconsistent guide when gauging how EM equities will perform when the Fed raises rates. In this paper, we outline several reasons EM exposures could prove to be diversifying as the current cycle plays out.
Are High Oil Prices a Threat to Investors?
Overall, we view high oil prices as another headwind for expensive growth stocks and potentially European markets, which are more exposed via their reliance on Russian energy exports.