Research Publications Archive

Earnings Recovery

Despite the persistent fall in equity prices, analyst expectations of S&P 500 earnings remain quite optimistic. Historical precedent suggests that earnings could well rebound within the time horizon envisaged by analysts, but are unlikely to prove as robust as they expect.

Japanese Distressed Investing

An assessment of the investment opportunities resulting from a debilitating combination of successive recessions in Japan and the reluctance of government officials to enact and enforce financial sector reforms. Key topics include market risks, supply of distressed assets, strategies to capitalize on the opportunity, and investment vehicles and fund structures.

Three Key Issues for 2002 & Beyond

Three key issues will determine the prospects for the global economy: the likelihood of an impending recovery proving feeble or robust, and the outlook for sustainable longer-term growth.

Mother Goose Revisited

If Goldilocks were the presiding genius of the fabled new economy of the roaring nineties, Humpty Dumpty may be more appropriate to the current situation. All the Fed’s horses and all the President’s men are working to put the U.S. economy back together again, but their conventional tools may prove inadequate.

Market Outlook

Three factors are critical in improving the prospects for the United Kingdom and Europe: a recovery in the U.S. economy, continued strength in U.K. consumer spending, and structural improvements in continental Europe. Although bond and equity markets have priced in expectations for a global economic recovery between the middle to end of 2002 because evidence…

Price Competition in Higher Education

The reasons most commonly cited for the seemingly inexorable slide toward the financial abyss are the relentless competition for high position in college rankings such as those invented by U.S. News & World Report; competition from taxpayer-subsidized public universities; and the inclination of even relatively affluent parents to bargain for more financial aid. Most at…

The Growing Importance of Endowment

Our data suggest that colleges with proportionally more endowment enjoy stronger pricing power and greater capacity to bridge the widening gap between operating revenues and expenditures. At the same time, the abrupt end to the sustained 1990s bull market increases the prospect that volatility in investment returns may put endowment support of operations at greater…