US PE/VC Benchmark Commentary: Calendar Year 2022
A year after posting their second highest annual returns ever, performance for the US private equity and venture capital indexes fell back to earth in 2022.
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Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the Energy Transition?
Yes, the transition to a low-carbon economy is producing a myriad of productive ways to put capital to work.
VantagePoint: Investing in a Low-Carbon Future
The energy transition involves a complex and dynamic set of changes in the way we do just about everything. While significant progress has been made in some quarters, considerable capital will be needed to fund the massive investment required over coming decades. We expect investors with a deliberate and thoughtful plan to invest in the transition across the risk/reward spectrum will be rewarded.
A New Approach: How ERISA-Covered US Pension Plans Can Save on PBGC Premiums
By changing the PPA discount rate methodology to the Full Yield Curve approach, ERISA-covered US single-employer pension plans can significantly decrease or eliminate their variable rate premiums, reduce complexity, and simplify the risk management process.
Don’t Count Out Government Bonds Just Yet
For investors that typically rely on high-quality government bonds as a counterbalance in equity-heavy portfolios, poor recent performance, higher cash yields, and uncertainty about inflation are difficult hurdles to overcome. However, they are not a reason to underweight government bonds. The outlook for government bonds is more constructive, and we expect them to outperform cash over the next one to three years.
US Debt Ceiling Deal to Weigh Modestly on Already Weak Economic Growth Outlook
US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy finalized an agreement in principle to suspend the US debt ceiling through January 1, 2025. The agreement removes the possibility of an unprecedented default, provided it is signed into law, however it still modestly reduces expected government spending and will likely result in tighter near-term liquidity conditions. Taken together, the compromise slightly increases the risk of recession in the United States, which we already viewed as likely.
Should Investors Continue to Overweight US Small Caps Despite Recent Banking Sector Stress and Growing Recession Fears?
Yes, investors should overweight US small-cap stocks, given valuations remain attractive and will provide a cushion if an expected recession unfolds.
US Real Estate Faces Challenges, But Opportunities Exist
Commercial real estate is not immune to economic cyclicality, and we think the sector will be challenged through an economic downturn. However, we think cyclical pressures will likely create opportunities in select sectors and advise investors to selectively invest in these areas to benefit from a rebound during the recovery.
The Business Cycle’s Impact on Asset Performance
Asset performance is highly sensitive to the global business cycle. In this chart book, we highlight the significant shifts in performance distributions across the global business cycle for major asset classes, including equity regions, styles, sectors as well as for fixed income, real asset and currencies. Ultimately, understanding the distributions of asset performance across business cycle stages and considering where the global economy is headed are key inputs in a rigorous investment decision-making framework.
Do Recent Central Bank Meetings Alter Our US Dollar Outlook?
No, we expect that while the US dollar should decline from its current elevated level over the medium term, there are factors that will continue to provide it with support in the short term. If our expectations are met, later this year or early next year should be an opportune time to consider positioning portfolios to benefit from a weaker dollar.