This paper speculates that while some of the excess from the equity bubble years has been worked off, the secular bottom will probably not arrive until valuations improve and despair reaches levels proportional to the preceding bull market euphoria.
If the unwinding of the recent bubble conforms to the typical pattern of past post-speculative periods, investors should be prepared for a long, hard slog.
This commentary takes an in-depth look at the U.S. equity market.
Small-cap equities have thrashed large caps over the last two years. While the performance disparity between small and large caps is already significant, the small-cap rally may still have some legs if history serves as a useful guide. Investors should maintain exposure to both small and large caps, rebalancing among both the capitalization sectors and…
Reviews investors’ concerns of capital overhang and interim valuations, and highlights that investors should keep in mind that downturns are part of the nature of this asset class, and this one comes on the heels of an unprecedented upswing.
Over the course of the 18.25-year bull market, more than half of the market’s capital appreciation was driven by inflation and the decline in interest rates, and another 20% by multiple expansion, leaving only about 20% of the appreciation attributable to real earnings growth. Between March 31, 2000 and March 31, 2002, inflation continued to…
Despite the persistent fall in equity prices, analyst expectations of S&P 500 earnings remain quite optimistic. Historical precedent suggests that earnings could well rebound within the time horizon envisaged by analysts, but are unlikely to prove as robust as they expect.
As the title suggests, this report examines changes in the TIPS market since their first issuance in 1997, as well as implementation issues for institutions seeking either the inflation- or deflation-hedging features of TIPS.
If Goldilocks were the presiding genius of the fabled new economy of the roaring nineties, Humpty Dumpty may be more appropriate to the current situation. All the Fed’s horses and all the President’s men are working to put the U.S. economy back together again, but their conventional tools may prove inadequate.
Due to the consistent upward bias of analyst projections, investors should exercise caution in valuing equities on the basis of forward earnings expectations.