The Forgotten 70%: Strategies for Pension Plans Accruing Benefits
Plans with active participants need a holistic, flexible risk budgeting approach—not a simple glide path
Investment Planning
What Should Investors Make of Recent Headlines from China and Greece?
The situations in China and Greece, not to mention Puerto Rico’s debt woes, serve as a poignant reminder not to be complacent. Investors should take care that portfolios are well constructed, diversified, and consistent with their ability to absorb downside risks while meeting long-term return objectives. With risks rising in some areas, and few bargains…
VantagePoint: Third Quarter 2015
This edition of VantagePoint reviews the potential for contagion from Greece, concluding that the ECB appears to have adequate ammunition to manage through current conditions, but longer-term political risks remain. We consider recent activity in Chinese equity markets and conclude that offshore Chinese H-shares offer more appeal than onshore A-shares, where upside potential is limited as highly leveraged investors seek to reduce exposure by selling into rallies. We examine the prospects for a sustained reversal of major trends that have persisted since last year, concluding that reversals appear unlikely for now.
Introducing the Impact Investing Benchmark
While private impact investing has experienced significant growth and maturation, the field is in need of robust analysis on financial performance to help inform investor expectations. This report introduces the first Impact Investing Benchmark, which begins to address this important facet of the conversation.
Investment Publications Highlights: May 2015
Market Valuations at the Start of US Rate-Hike Cycles Charles Himmelberg et al., Goldman Sachs, April 26, 2015 The Federal Reserve’s expected decision to hike rates later this year has prompted questions about the impact on the market, particularly given the prolonged period rates have effectively been held at zero. In a recent article, Goldman…
Investment Publications Highlights: April 2015
Quicksilver Markets Ted Berg, Office of Financial Research, March 2015 Earlier this year, US equity investors celebrated the current bull market’s sixth anniversary and the tripling of prices that accompanied the uptrend. These heady gains have left equity prices high by historical standards. In a recent article, the US Treasury Department’s research arm notes that…
VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2015
Advice in Brief We generally remain neutral on risky assets, but are becoming more cautious and selective as the market cycle advances and the US Federal Reserve looks to begin raising rates. We maintain our advice that investors shift more capital into safer assets as equity markets become more expensive. Volatility has been rising in…
Has the Rapid Rise in the US Dollar Changed Our View on Currency Hedging for US$ Investors?
We continue to believe US$-based investors should hedge a portion of non-US$ currency exposure, particularly that associated with tactical positions in non-US$ assets.* Strategic hedging to mitigate currency volatility may also be appropriate for investors with large allocations (e.g., 20%–25% or higher) to foreign currencies.** We maintain this recommendation even as we regard the US…
What Are the Implications of Negative Interest Rates and Why Are Investors Accepting Them?
Several important central banks—most notably the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank—have recently broken the “zero bound” for interest rates by moving their official policy rates decisively into negative territory, causing rates on some money market funds and wholesale deposits denominated in those currencies to also go negative. At this pace, it may…
Time to Batten Down the Hatches?
Over periods of prolonged prosperity, the economy transits from financial relations that make for a stable system to financial relations that make for an unstable system. —Hyman Minsky, “The Financial Instability Hypothesis,” May 1992 Stability Is Destabilizing —Minsky T-shirt Over the past several years, one of the most interesting market developments has been the virtual…