VantagePoint: Third Quarter 2016
VantagePoint is a quarterly publication from our Chief Investment Strategist Celia Dallas summarizing CA’s total portfolio advice.
Investment Planning
Should Investors Reposition Portfolios in Light of the UK Referendum to Leave the European Union?
No, assuming investors have heeded our advice to keep diversifying assets defensive.
Investment Publications Highlights: June 2016
June’s publication summarizes two articles related to pension plans. The first suggests corporate defined benefit pension plans seeking to improve funding levels conduct careful cost-benefit analysis, and the second argues that public pension plans improperly discount expected liabilities, raising risks among plan participants.
Building a Portfolio Based on Shariah Principles: An Investor’s Guide
The Gulf region’s rapid rise in wealth over the past two decades has prompted increasing demand for Shariah-compliant offerings. While a full suite of solutions for institutional investors is still developing, the opportunity set today is sufficient to build a Shariah-compliant portfolio that offers growth, some diversification, and some protection against macroeconomic risks.
Has the Market Become Too Complacent Too Quickly?
The market has not become too complacent and continues to register the many potential risks on the horizon.
What’s the Outlook for US Equities Given the Earnings Recession?
Risks to US equities remain firmly skewed to the downside, but as long as the Fed remains on hold and the twin earnings headwinds of weak oil/strong dollar continue to fade, US equities could continue to muddle along near recent levels.
Investment Publications Highlights: April 2016
April’s publication summarizes three articles focused on oil markets. The first reviews different approaches to developing oil price expectations, arguing that each has faults; the second suggests oil prices may have hit a bottom in February; and the third highlights “good”, “bad,” and “ugly” aspects affecting oil prices today.
VantagePoint: Second Quarter 2016
In this edition of VantagePoint, we discuss the potential implications of negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In addition, we consider the potential for sustained outperformance in value stocks, which experienced a sharp revival in the second half of the first quarter, noting that we would continue to own value in portfolios, but would not broadly overweight just yet. Energy-related assets and emerging markets equities seem a better way to obtain value-based exposures today. At the same time, we are keeping a close eye on credit markets in search of value opportunities. Finally, we review the outlook for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which we believe offer modest opportunity to outperform relative to nominal Treasuries should headline CPI follow the increase experienced in some of the stickier prices in the index.
Will Value Stocks Continue to Outperform?
Prospects are tenuous for sustained outperformance of value stocks on the whole. We recommend owning value stocks, but would not broadly overweight just yet.
Pondering the Consequences of “Brexit”
As the cacophony surrounding the 23 June “Brexit” referendum grows, just how much the United Kingdom stands to lose or gain from leaving remains unclear, and investors with substantial exposures to British assets would do well to pay attention to sentiment.