Risk assets enjoyed mostly positive returns in fiscal year 2023. Equities rebounded as fears over the severity of a possible recession moderated. Emerging markets equities lagged developed markets as the pace of reopening in China disappointed. Bond performance improved as credit assets posted positive returns but developed markets sovereign bonds struggled. Real assets suffered due to higher interest rates and slowing demand.
No, we continue to believe investors should hold US Treasuries in line with policy allocations. While the recent decision by Fitch Ratings to downgrade the sovereign credit rating of the United States added upward pressure on Treasury yields, we do not expect it will have a lasting impact.
Banking sector challenges have helped to establish private lenders as main sources of capital to mid-market and large companies and created a range of private credit investment opportunities for pension plan sponsors, which requires thoughtful portfolio construction when implementing these strategies in an uncertain market environment.
Risk assets rallied in July as slowing inflation and pockets of economic resilience supported performance.
Yes. Despite elevated macro uncertainty, it is an opportune time to allocate to private credit.
Private credit strategies such as private direct lending funds and public business development companies have become popular among pension plan sponsors seeking yield enhancement over their public fixed income allocations. Understanding the key characteristics of both will better enable them to choose the best fit for their plan.
Performance was mixed in second quarter as several crosscurrents painted an uncertain outlook.
For investors that typically rely on high-quality government bonds as a counterbalance in equity-heavy portfolios, poor recent performance, higher cash yields, and uncertainty about inflation are difficult hurdles to overcome. However, they are not a reason to underweight government bonds. The outlook for government bonds is more constructive, and we expect them to outperform cash over the next one to three years.
The current macroeconomic and market environment creates an attractive opportunity for credit opportunity managers. We believe managers with flexible capital, strong sourcing efforts, and structuring skills will find ample investment opportunities and will deliver strong returns in the coming years.
Risk assets generally declined in May, with real assets posting the lowest returns across broad categories.