Credit/Fixed Income

Credit Spreads Take Pensions for a Wild Ride

As the COVID-19 outbreak has escalated in the United States, sponsors of single employer–defined benefit pension plans have experienced a roller coaster ride. Avoiding, or at least cushioning, another wild ride requires a well-designed hedging strategy that accounts for credit spreads. We provide context for this rapidly evolving spread environment and potential responses.

The Complex Relationship Between Inflation and Asset Prices

As we write in March 2020, COVID-19 is spreading across much of the world, undercutting economic activity. While we are unsure of how this situation will unfold, we have long believed that the best way to guard against future uncertainty is to have a well-constructed portfolio. One key component in that is understanding the relationship between asset prices and inflation.

Treasury Bond Yields Plunge to Historic Lows

Yields on ten-year Treasuries dropped below 50 basis points (bps) today for the first time in history as COVID-19 fears spread. While we cannot rule out a recession, given the uncertainties associated with the virus and its impact on economic activity, we believe today’s low yields are less about long-term growth forecasts and more about expectations of further Federal Reserve easing, risk aversion, and liquidity preferences.

Review of Market Performance: Calendar Year 2019

The gradual abatement of geopolitical risks, and a renewed accommodative stance from global central banks, led to a strong rebound in risk sentiment in 2019. Equities led the way higher, while interest rate cuts ensured fixed income markets participated in what was a robust year for asset classes across the board. This chart book explores global asset returns and the factors influencing performance last year.