The energy transition involves a complex and dynamic set of changes in the way we do just about everything. While significant progress has been made in some quarters, considerable capital will be needed to fund the massive investment required over coming decades. We expect investors with a deliberate and thoughtful plan to invest in the transition across the risk/reward spectrum will be rewarded.
The latest estimate of first quarter GDP indicates that the euro area fell into a technical recession.
Asset performance is highly sensitive to the global business cycle. In this chart book, we highlight the significant shifts in performance distributions across the global business cycle for major asset classes, including equity regions, styles, sectors as well as for fixed income, real asset and currencies. Ultimately, understanding the distributions of asset performance across business cycle stages and considering where the global economy is headed are key inputs in a rigorous investment decision-making framework.
The 2022 Europe ex UK edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
We entered 2023 with a view that a recession in some economies, namely the United States and much of Europe, was likely this year, and the recent banking sector stresses reinforce our confidence in this view. Investors should be disciplined in maintaining policy targets broadly, remembering the role allocations to stocks, bonds, and cash play in portfolios.
The current market turmoil has created an attractive environment for direct lenders. The dislocation in the public markets has driven borrowers to private lenders that can demand better pricing and lender-friendly terms. As a floating-rate asset, lenders are benefiting from the sharp increase in rates and all-in yields are in the low double digits.
The 2022 UK edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
Yes. Aggressive central bank tightening has caused economic growth to slow in Europe and the United States, and we expect that the recent banking sector stress will further weaken economic growth. Now is the time for investors to tactically overweight quality equities, given this style has tended to outperform broad equities during periods of economic contraction.
On 20 March, investors awoke to news Swiss authorities had used emergency measures to push through a hastily arranged merger of Credit Suisse and UBS. Following two recent bank failures in the United States, the announcement raised questions over the health of European banks and the broader economy.
Today, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds target range by 25 basis points (bps), to 4.75%–5.00%, as expected, and signaled it expects at least another 25 bps of additional rate hikes will be necessary to bring down inflation. This announcement and the recent turmoil in the banking sector increase our confidence that the Fed is nearly done tightening.