Inflation Concerns Prompt ECB to End Era of Negative Rates
The European Central Bank raised its policy rates by 50 basis points, including its deposit rate, which is now 0%, to address high inflation levels in the bloc.
Europe
War in Ukraine Dents European Growth Prospects
The ongoing war in Ukraine has exerted a material impact on both global economies and markets, primarily via a steep increase in commodity prices, especially energy. Europe has been particularly affected due to its geographical proximity and the resultant dependence of many of its nations on Russian fossil fuels. This chart book reviews the hit to European growth associated with the war in Ukraine.
VantagePoint: Resilience in a Time of Uncertainty
Global inflation has been higher and more persistent than most economists anticipated. In this edition of VantagePoint, we evaluate current inflationary and deflationary crosscurrents and the implications for investors. We continue to believe that predicting the future path of inflation is difficult to do well and that the best protection is a well-constructed diversified portfolio designed to meet the asset owner’s risk tolerance, portfolio objectives, and spending needs.
Decades of Data: Europe ex UK 1900–2021
The 2021 Europe ex UK edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
Decades of Data: United Kingdom 1900–2021
The 2021 UK edition of our annual report on the history of financial markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds.
Will Concerns Over “Greenflation” Derail the Energy Transition?
No. The inflation attributed to green initiatives (known as “greenflation”) is part of the current inflation narrative, but we doubt concerns related to it will derail the global energy transition.
VantagePoint: Jumpstarting the Energy Transition
This year may prove to be pivotal in the transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Policy makers, businesses, and investors are accelerating commitments to bring greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050, while technological advances and economics in sectors, like renewable energy and EVs, are reaching more competitive functionality and cost. Even as the energy transition gains speed, we are still in the very early days and anticipate a long and disruptive transition.
Inflation Pressures Central Banks to Begin Normalizing Policies
This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and to a lesser extent the European Central Bank all acted to tighten monetary policies. These tightenings came as inflationary pressures have surged in many countries and as other central banks have looked to rein in simulative policies. But, when combined with above-trend growth expectations next year and central banks’ likely cautious tightening approach, we suspect financial conditions will likely remain accommodative and supportive of risk assets.
Does the New German Government Herald a Return to Fiscal Austerity for Europe?
No. While there is no danger of the fiscal floodgates opening in Europe, the ‘traffic-light’ coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) looks set to oversee some loosening of the fiscal purse strings in Germany.
Does the ECB Strategy Review Represent an Overhaul of Euro Area Monetary Policy?
No. The results of the strategy review were more about clarifying and making explicit how European Central Bank (ECB) policy is currently run, rather than signalling a radical departure for monetary policy in the single currency bloc.