Market Matters: June 2020
Risk assets broadly rallied in second quarter, sharply reversing course after experiencing extraordinary market turmoil in February and March.
Equities
Market Matters: May 2020
Risk assets advanced again in May, building on April’s strong price momentum.
VantagePoint – The Path Ahead: From a Bear Market to the New Normal
In this edition of VantagePoint, we review the shape of historical recoveries from bear markets and recessions. We believe that both a V-shaped and a disastrous L-shaped economic recovery are unlikely, with a W- or U-shaped economic recovery more probable.
US Unemployment Rate Reflects Economic Toll of COVID-19
The US economy lost a staggering 20.5 million jobs in April, in the worst plunge in payrolls since the Great Depression, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning.
US Manager Universe Statistics: First Quarter 2020
This publication presents manager performance for 37 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
Market Matters: April 2020
Most risk assets surged in April, partially recovering from steep losses during first quarter’s volatile market environment. Global equities bounced back with double-digit gains, driven largely by US shares.
Decades of Data: 1900–2019
As the current market environment continues to rapidly evolve, we remind investors that reviewing the history of business cycles, returns, and valuations can help provide a framework for understanding the market today. Our 2019 edition of Decades of Data presents historical analysis on economic indicators, equity, fixed income, and cash markets across eight geographies over the very long term.
Benefits of Global Diversification
Investors are now grappling with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has sent global equities into bear market territory as the threat of a severe recession weighs on the global economy. These are challenging, uncertain times for equity markets. As investors work to ensure their portfolios will be robust through this downturn and are positioned for the eventual rebound, we offer a review of the critical benefits of global equity diversification and examine considerations related to home bias, rebalancing strategies, and currency impacts.
VantagePoint: Is It Time to Overweight Equities?
In periods of market stress, it can be difficult to rebalance, much less overweight risky assets like equities. In this paper, we review our approach using multiple lenses: magnitude and duration of drawdowns relative to history, cheapness of valuations, and presence of pre-conditions for markets to begin their ascent. Such an approach can help investors tune out the emotion and dial in on the hard data and most probable outcomes even in the face of great uncertainty. While opportunities are developing across many markets, investors should hold off on broad overweights to risky assets at this time.
Market Matters: March 2020
Global risk assets suffered major drawdowns comparable to the global financial crisis in first quarter.