In this edition of VantagePoint, we review three big questions that are central to the path of the markets: 1) Will the US Fed pivot away from aggressive tightening?; 2) Will China move away from its zero-COVID policy?; and 3) Will Europe successfully manage its transition away from Russian energy imports?
No, we don’t think so. While there may be higher-than-typical market volatility around the run-off election on October 30, we expect economic issues will be the primary driver of Brazilian equities in the months that follow. On balance, we see these issues as neither overly positive nor negative and recommend that investors maintain Brazilian allocations in line with their policy.
Risk assets declined again in third quarter. Global equities recorded the worst three-quarter decline since the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis.
Asian markets have had a difficult year, but while the current environment has been challenging for most investments, it has also created an opportunity for more defensive and diversifying strategies to add value. In this edition of Asia Insights, we focus on the case for Asia quality strategies within public equities; increased interest in India and Southeast Asia venture capital markets; private infrastructure and private credit as defensive strategies; and the value in Asia macro and equity long/short.
No. Despite the recent spate of lockdowns in China, we still anticipate some form of easing of the current zero-COVID policy and increased support for the economy following the Party Congress in October.
Risk assets broadly retreated in August, reversing course mid-month on the growing realization that elevated interest rates may be around longer than expected.
This publication presents manager performance for 37 asset classes and substrategies, showing the median, mean, and key percentiles of return. Relevant indexes for each asset class are also included to provide market context.
Risk assets rebounded in July as stocks rallied off recent bear market lows and bond yields ticked lower, boosted by better-than-expected second quarter earnings results and signs that the Federal Reserve could slow the pace of interest rate increases sooner than anticipated.
Fiscal year 2022 was a challenging one for public market investments. Rising levels of inflation across most developed and emerging markets saw central banks become more aggressive in their monetary tightening plans. This in turn saw correlations between bonds and equities become positive; bonds declined as a direct result of higher inflation and tighter policy, while equities weakened in response to the higher cost of capital. This chart book presents returns and other market metrics for fiscal year 2022.
Volatility peaked in June as markets struggled to find equilibrium between inflationary pressures and the prospects of a recession. There was no shortage of uncertainty. Given the environment, hedge funds performed relatively well versus broad equity and credit market indexes, despite most strategies experiencing absolute losses.